With all the contracts signed and trades done, how the rotations shake out are back in the news today. Last week we made our predictions and projections for the Celtics starters, so now we’ll dive into the second unit. Last season, Boston used a high energy bench mob led by Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder to propel themselves to a 24-12 record during the second half of the season. Their surge helped secure a playoff berth only a year removed from trading away the final pieces of the Big 3. With a roster even deeper than last season’s, competition for any minutes will be tough. Whoever makes the rotation will be someone who comes to camp ready to compete and accepts the challenge of going toe-to-toe with players of similar skill level and distinguishes himself from the rest. Here’s how I think it’ll shake out.
Point Guard
Isaiah Thomas
2014-2015 statistics: 16.2ppg, 4.2apg, 2.3rpg
This isn’t a conversation. Isaiah Thomas is going to find minutes on the team no matter what. Sporting an impressive 20.63 PER last season, Thomas is an electric and efficient scorer. His limitations as a defender won’t go away unless he has an unprecedented growth spurt, and I believe these limitations makes him perfectly suited as a 6th man where if he commits, he could be the best in the league. Thomas flourishes when playing heavy pick and roll, and being surrounded by shooters. This Celtics roster could provide him with that opportunity to play in a perfect situation.
2015-2016 Projection: 14.5ppg, 5.5 apg, 2.orpg
Shooting Guard
R.J Hunter
I wrestled with this one for a while, and even now I’m still skeptical, but here’s why I’m going with Hunter. With Smart, Bradley, and Thomas all set to get their fair share of playing time, this backup shooting guard position is really going to come down to rookies RJ Hunter, and Terry Rozier (I consider James Young a Small Forward). Of those two, we’ve seen the reports of how hard-working Rozier is, and his relentless approach to the game. In theory, that makes him better suited to win this job at camp. He’ll compete at the highest level, and relish the opportunity to go toe to toe with the vets. However, his biggest con, and what made fans dislike the pick, is how much can he really separate himself from what Smart, Bradley, and Thomas can bring. His speed and ability to create for himself are still there, but will he shoot it consistent enough for defenders to respect? At this stage that answer is no.
Hunter is a proven shooter who has shown potential to defend multiple positions, and passing ability to warrant a discussion about him running the offense for a few possessions. That’s not to say he won’t have his moments where he struggles and it looks like the game is moving too fast for him, but his high basketball IQ will keep those moments more distant than other rookies. This skill-set will mesh seamlessly with Isaiah Thomas, allowing him to play off-ball for some stretches as well. Defensively, he’ll struggle because of his lack of strength, but he does a great job of staying engaged, and putting himself in the right position. Against second unit guards he could hold his own, and form a pretty interesting backcourt with Thomas
2015-2016 Projection: 8.5ppg, 3.0apg, 3.0rpg
Small Forward
Jonas Jerebko
2014-2015 Statistics: 6.0ppg, 3.8rpg,0.9apg
After resigning in Boston, Jerebko will be looking for an expanded role, and will get it as the teams backup small forward. If Turner loses his starting job it doesn’t make much sense to put him in the second unit either where he’s not a great fit alongside Isaiah Thomas either. Jerebko has shown the ability to stretch out the defense with his three point range (shot 38.6% from three last season), and was an active defender with good lateral quickness and the ability to defend multiple positions. He’ll fit well on the second unit as a spacer who can help set the tone with his energy.
2015-2016 Projection: 7.0ppg, 5.0rpg, 1.0apg
Power Forward
David Lee
2014-2015 Statistics: 7.9ppg, 5.2rpg, 1.7apg
At 32 years old, and his best days behind him, I think Lee will be best suited in a reserve role where he can put out max effort for 15-20 minutes a game, and play to his strengths. This second unit will be filled with guys who can space the floor, Lee will have space to work in the paint where he can showcase his great post passing or scoring ability. Defense has always been a question, but last season he actually had a 98.7 defensive rating at home, and does a decent job defending the post, keeping up with guys on the perimeter is where he gets himself in trouble. He won’t suddenly become a better defender in Boston, but in limited minutes he’ll still be a positive on the court.
2015-2016 Projection: 7.0ppg, 7.0rpg, 2.5apg
Center
Jordan Mickey
To round out the second unit, I believe the job will go to Jordan Mickey as the team’s backup center. With elite athleticism, and length he’ll be the perfect player to pair up with David Lee where he can help correct Lee’s mistakes on defense, and Lee can feed him easy looks on the other end. He’ll need to get stronger to defend some of the bigger post players, but he’ll be better off learning in the second unit as opposed to playing in the D-league. His ability to correct his and others mistakes defensively will be how he gets the job, and if he can show off that efficient mid-range jumper he was showing off in the summer league, teams will have fits trying to defend the pick and rolls Thomas can run with either Lee or Mickey.
2015-2016 Projection: 6.5ppg, 6.0rpg, 1.8bpg
Next week we’ll explore the out of the rotation players, and how they could become rotation members.
