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Your Morning Dump… Where the Clippers show the Celtics just how far they have to go

Deandre

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

For the third consecutive game, the playoff-charging Celtics essentially had no juice left in their battery. They were getting punched in the mouth by the Los Angeles Clippers and showed no signs of responding, no passion.

It’s a shame too, because for the first 70 games, the Celtics were entertaining and vigorous. But it appears they are on empty. Too many roster changes, a lack of cohesion, perhaps fatigue.

[…]

They had to know the Clippers, who have scored at least 107 points in each of their last six games, would come to Boston with bad intentions in the final game of a three-game trip. They looked at this game as a must-win with Golden State coming to Staples Center on Tuesday and took the assignment seriously.

The Celtics appeared to lose this game before the opening tip. They saw the Clippers’ superstars and were already defeated. They didn’t challenge the Clippers until it was too late, allowing 105 points through three quarters on 55.9 percent shooting and 12 3-pointers

Boston.com – Celtics appear to be running out of steam

Last night, it looked like the Celtics and Clippers play in two completely disparate basketball leagues. In a way, this is true. The Celtics playoff race is being conducted with training wheels while the jockeying for western conference playoff position that the Clippers are involved in is being run on motorcycles.

As we head into a week that will determine the Cs playoff fate, last night’s game, the last against the Western Conference this season, means nothing or it means everything depending on who you ask.

Optimists will opine that the Celtics were never going to win last night’s game. As Washburn observes, the Cs “appeared to lose this game before the opening tip.” The Celts were completely and utterly outclassed at every position on the floor. Constantly a step late on defense and downright timid on offense. No one is mistaking the Celtics for a true contender and last night was simply confirmation of that assumption. The big kids from Los Angeles are racing off down the block, let’s get back to the regularly scheduled program of trying to beat the Hornets and Pacers this week, you know, the other teams riding on training wheels. Win the next two games and no one is thinking about the big kids until the playoffs.

Pessimists will point to the Celtics’ body of work over the last week and a half. What seemed like just an expected blip on the radar when the Cs dropped two games out west to the Thunder and Spurs has devolved into a period of uninspired, languid basketball. Long stretches of bad offense can’t be what have Celtics fans primarily concerned. No one’s mistaking Brad Stevens’ crew as an offensive juggernaut. There will be, and have been struggles on offense all season. What’s been troubling is the lack of fight and spunk that characterized the Cs of February and early March. At the beginning of the month, the Cs hosted a Western Conference behemoth on a Sunday evening at the Garden. No one expected them to win. They didn’t. But they came out on fire and opened up a 26-point lead on the Golden State Warriors. In a season of unexpected success, that’s all fans could ask for.

Last night? They looked like they knew they had no chance. No on expected them to win. They didn’t. But it’s that pervasive attitude that’s spread over the last week and a half, coupled with a lack of talent that was so obviously clear last night, that could spell the Cs doom this week. They can’t fix the latter over night. They better figure out the former on their flight to Charlotte.

On Page 2: Better for the Cs to miss the playoffs?

Brad Stevens will never ever dribble away from something that’s working on a given night and put a unit on the floor that sabotages his club’s chances of winning.

But when the Celts walk off the court in Milwaukee after playing their last regular-season game on April 15 and they look online at the updated Eastern Conference standings, it will be better for the franchise if they’re not occupying one of the first eight positions.

[…]

But while the Bostonians’ inability to be even remotely competitive with one of the better teams in the league means little or nothing in the blindfolded, five-legged race that’s happening at the bottom of the Eastern Conference ladder, it is more than instructive vis a vis the Celts’ proximity to an honest opportunity to win a championship.

Boston Herald – Celtics ultimately better off if they don’t make the playoffs

I painted a bit of a bleak picture on “Page 1″ but I’m here to rebut Steve Bulpett here on Page 2. If we were having this conversation two months ago, and the Cs were equally as close to the bottom of the standings as they were the 8-seed in the playoffs I would have sided with Bulpett. At this point, what does finishing 9th or 10th in the east really solve? There’s no such thing as lottery karma. The ping pong balls aren’t going to reward the Cs with a top three pick just because they tried hard as opposed to tank.

Bulpett argues that playoff experience  doesn’t matter, because many of the guys who would get the experience probably won’t be on the roster if/when the Cs are playing really meaningful playoff games deep into May. Again, so what? If this team is years away from true contention, the number twelve pick won’t make a huge difference. Additionally, some of these guys factor into the Cs long-term future, so giving them a chance to play some national TV games in Cleveland or Atlanta counts for something.

Bulpett is thinking like a calculated GM, but what about thinking like an owner? A few playoff games will go a long way in keeping the positive buzz going about the Celtics. At this point, with the Celtics far away from lottery excitement, it’s time for everyone involved to embrace this thing.

And Finally, The Cs need the real Marcus Smart back this week

Smart played his fewest minutes since Jan. 23, going 0-for-6 from the floor in only 18:22 of the lopsided loss, which looked a little bit better after a late recovery.

Coach Brad Stevens made the decision to sit Smart on the bench, a clear off night for the rookie.

[…]

Smart has struggled offensively since coming back from his suspension. In four games since missing the Detroit loss on March 22, Smart is averaging 3.5 points a game. He was suspended for one game for an apparent low blow to Spurs forward Matt Bonner.

Boston Herald – Marcus smart sits most of Celtics’ shaky outing

Marcus Smart isn’t just a future piece of the Boston Celtics, he’s a huge part of their present playoff push. It’s hard to play with consistent energy and tenacity, Smart’s staples, when lost offensively. Marcus doesn’t look assertive on the floor right now and it’s affecting him everywhere on the court.

It’s possible that he, like many of the Celtics, have just hit the wall. He’s 73 games into his first NBA season. His first time through the ringer. Unlike most playoff contenders, the Celtics need their rookie to do more than just gain experience. He has to be a huge part of the equation for the Celts to get enough wins over these last nine if they want to make the playoffs. Even if the offense doesn’t come back right away, Boston needs his energy on the other end of the floor, and not on the bench.

The Rest of the Links:

CSNNE – After loss to the Clippers, Celtics face big game in Charlotte | Rivers: Celtics are ahead of all other rebuilding teams

Boston Herald – Celtics notebook: Celtics’ prognosis pleases Doc

ESPN Boston – Isaiah Thomas: ‘We gotta punch first’ | Doc is what’s up: Rivers back in Boston

MassLive – Isaiah Thomas would be ‘happy’ with move to Boston Celtics starting lineup | NBA Eastern Conference standings: Boston Celtics fall out of top 8

 

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  • NE_Celt

    Something I saw with Smart in last nights game concerned me…several times he got up in guys faces and was trying to start something…ever since his hit on Bonner, he seems to be more “aggressive” and talking a bit more smack with other players. Usually I would not be against this…but for a rookie, who is still fresh off a suspension for what many called a dirty play, I would think you tone down your chest bumping and just play ball…not try to be a provoker like Matt Barnes.

    I still want to see the C’s fight for a playoff spot…yes, many of these guys wont be around for the full rebuild…but some will stay around, and that experience will be huge. But more so than the players, I think Brad Stevens would benefit…and he is the mistro that is getting this smattering of players to actually have some success and even be in the race for a playoff spot.

    • Curt Hays

      Not trying to be rude, but…Beware the confirmation bias.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

      • DRJ

        Yeah — Can’t say I’ve seen more aggression from Marcus since the nutjob — if anything, he’s been more passive, imo. And kinda bad, actually. (But opinions vary… dats for sure)

      • NE_Celt

        haha…thanks Curt. Didnt mean for my comment to come off as strong as it may have…just some observations. Overall, I do agree with DRJ’s comment below, he has been more passive with his overall game. But there were those few times where I felt he just kept getting in the guys face, when there may not have been a need for it.

  • DRJ

    As expected, Cs lost. LAC (looking fully elite) got super-hot shooting the ball from all distances, and we didn’t. Cs’ offense performed fairly well, given the context. But their defense was completely swamped by the Clips’ great O.

    – IT is looking better with each game.
    – Most of our remaining games are against teams fighting for playoff slots. Gonna be tough.

    Tonight’s Off. & Def. Ratings:
    Cs’ OFFENSIVE RATING for this game = 106.0 (pts per 100 possessions) — which would be #14 in the NBA if it were a season average. Not bad, given how good the Clippers’ defense has been recently.

    LAC’s defense this full season has been giving up an average of *105.6* pts per 100 possessions (#17 in the NBA). Over the whole season, they’ve averaged a mediocre defense. But they’ve improved tremendously lately: Over their past 15 games, their DefRtg has averaged 102.9~#6 in league’s season #s. And for the whole post-All-Star period, they’ve averaged a DefRtg of 99.1 — easily #1 in the season!

    Cs’ current Off. Rating for the season is 104.1 (pts per 100 poss.), #18 in the league. This was expected to improve as IT returns to form over the next few games. Tonight was a good step in that direction.
    –––––––––––––––
    Cs’ DEFENSIVE RATING for this game = 119.0 (pts allowed per 100 possessions) — which would be #30 in the NBA as a season average — by far. (League worst = 111.2.) That # is a major disappointment. But the Clippers’ shooting was unnaturally hot tonight — and that’s all she wrote.

    LAC’s offense this full season has been scoring an average of 112.0 pts per 100 possessions — #1 in the NBA. Their OffRtg in the past 15 games is basically the same. However, their OffRtg for the full Post-All-Star period is 109.1 — ~#5 in the league’s season list. Sure, #5 is not as daunting as #1 — but both are miles better than the Cs. And tonight, there was no indication that the Clippers were ANYTHING but an elite offensive team.

    Cs’ current Def. Rating for the season is 104.9 (pts allowed per 100 defensive possessions), #13 in the league. BUT — In their prior 10 games (excluding tonight), the Cs’ average Defensive Rating was a lot better than the NBA’s current best defense. Of course, that changed markedly tonight. (Details after the break.)
    –––––––––––––––
    Cs’ Net Rating for this game: -13.0 (pts/100 possessions). [Net Rating= Off. Rating minus Def. Rating = difference between our scoring rate and theirs.]
    –––––––––––––––
    Pace: Each team had 100 possessions — high for both the NBA and the Cs. [NBA average pace this season = 93.9 possessions/game; Cs’ average = 95.8 — 6th highest in the league.]

    Ratings comps: Basketball-reference.com. Formulas for possessions & Ratings: same as Bb-ref’s & RealGM’s, except Team-Rebounds & Team-TOs are included here.
    ___________________________

    WHERE ARE WE NOW?

    Here are the Cs’ average Ratings for the last 10 games, including tonight’s:
    Offensive Rating: 102.6 pts/100p — #27 in the league’s season avgs. <== This is a bad number. As noted, it’s expected to rise significantly as IT returns to form. Note: The Cs’ Offensive Rating dropped off dramatically after IT got injured; interestingly, the defense took off at the same time.

    Defensive Rating: 100.6 pts-allowed/100p — #2 in the league’s season avgs. <== The Cs’ D has been spectacularly good lately — until tonight. (Prior to tonight's game, the Cs' defense was #1 in the NBA over their last 10 games.) We’re good on D — but we CANNOT stop the elite teams. That much is clear at this point. But then — it was pretty obvious anyway. And besides — nobody can stop the elite teams, pretty much by definition.
    –––––––––––––––

    Here’s a look at the Cs’ Post-All-Star-break Ratings:
    Post-All-Star Offensive Rating: 103.6 pts/100p — ~#22 in the league’s season avgs. <== Important: Any changes due to IT’s return (and de-rusting) will probably NOT be noticeable in these Post-AS Ratings — there aren’t enough games left to make a dent in the Post-AS data pool. Any such changes at this point should show up in the Last 10 Games analysis.

    Post-All-Star Defensive Rating: 103.3 pts-allowed/100p — ~#9 in the NBA’s season avgs. <== This (obviously) incorporates ALL post-AS games, including the March 3 outlier game vs. CLE and tonight’s vs. LAC. FYI, just in case you’re curious: **Removal of that March 3 CLE outlier — with no other adjustment — results in a Cs Post-AS DefRtg of 102.2 — #2 in the league. It also makes the OffRtg = 104.6 — ~#18 in the league. **Anyone not curious and/or uninterested in those last two little factoids — JUST IGNORE THEM.

    _Note — the slotting into the NBA’s Off. and Def. hierarchy here is done using Basketball-reference.com’s Ratings lists, which are similar to RealGM’s and others. NBA.com’s Ratings are markedly different, calculated using different formulas, and therefore cannot be used to establish standings here.
    ___________________________

    We can’t worry about the Clippers: they’re out of our league. (In fact, they looked like the NBA’s 4th elite team tonight (with GSW, SAS, CLE); they could win it all.) BOS can take any non-elite team, imo. And since Cleveland is the only elite team in the East, the Cs can go through the playoffs and never have to face one (unless they get to the ECF, which isn’t very likely).

    Any notion of accepting the 7th seed should shake hands with the way the Clippers handled the Cs tonight. That’s what Cleveland would do to us — 4 times — only worse. No thanks to that. Stay away from 7th seed, is my vote. We don’t need to embarrass and depress our younguns. ATL is an excellent first-round opponent for the Cs, so let’s just go with 8th seed — if we can.

  • zippittyay

    MORE GIGI!

    • eddysamson

      And more touches for the guy. I remember seeing in a few recent games there were stretches where our offense was STINKING, he was on the floor, and he either wasn’t getting touches or he wasn’t getting open looks and not shooting. TBH I think he needs to default to our #1 scoring option when IT isn’t on the floor and #2/tied for #1 if IT is on the floor. He’s made a career of being an insane scorer, so lets let him do his thing.

  • RedsLoveChild

    He`s tough….No way hitting “Bonner-in-the-Boner” has traumatized Smart!

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