What’s Next for Marcus Smart?

With the trade of Rajon Rondo, the Celtics have committed to their young players, draft picks and cap space in their quest for banner number 18. Among these young players, perhaps the most exciting is rookie Marcus Smart, who is set to take over for Rajon Rondo at the point guard spot when he is fully healthy.  Due to ankle and achilles injuries, Smart has only played in 10 games so far, both showing off his tremendous talent and his youth, as most highly touted rookies do. Smart is being painted as the next man up for the Celtics, and while it is way too early to tell whether or not he will live up to the hype, this season will certainly be important to his development.

Smart’s role has changed with the trade of Rondo. Had the Celtics held onto Rondo, Smart would have continued to be a combo guard off the bench, only playing the point guard position with Rajon Rondo out of the game. Now it seems that the Celtics see him as Rondo’s replacement, and I would expect the majority of his playing time to come at the point guard position the rest of the way. Smart will be thrown into the fire a bit more, and that changes what the Celtics need him to do. The defensive energy he has brought will need to continue, but his responsibilities on the offensive end have increased without a doubt.

Here is why I think Smart will eventually be a good player for the Celtics to build around moving forward, and the one thing I’d like to see Smart improve on this season to help him get there.

How Smart Fits the Celtics

When the Celtics drafted Smart, many said he was not a good fit primarily because the Celtics already had a star player at the point guard spot. Still, at that time, Smart fit multiple needs for the Celtics. An area of weakness Brad Stevens has spoken about this year is the team’s toughness. He was careful not to call the team soft, but said that when things get tough for his team, they do not respond well. The Celtics have missed that certain edge and toughness that Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce brought to the team for years.

Smart brings that edge. It’s not well defined by statistics, but that’s not to say it is unimportant. Smart will bring energy and effort every single night. Even in games where he struggles offensively, he has the ability to change the game on the defensive end and in a brief stint as a rookie, has shown the ability to set the tone on the floor for the rest of his teammates. That is the type of player you want to lead your team.

Smart also fit the Celtics need for a scorer. Jeff Green has been reluctant to come into that role, and may have turned the corner this year, but will still be a better fit on a team where he is the third option. Smart has the potential to be a number 1 or 2 scoring option for a good NBA basketball team. He showed this ability in college by averaging 18 points per game last year. He also showed an improved ability to run an offense as the primary ball handler, improving his assist totals and bumping his assist to turnover ratio up from 1.25 his freshmen year to 1.8 his sophomore year. So far this season in limited time, his assist to turnover ratio is over 2, and he will only continue to improve with more experience.

In my opinion, Smart has the ability to be one of the NBA’s top point guards down the line. He can contribute offensively at a high level, but what sets him apart is his defense and ability to make plays at that end of the court. Looking at the NBA’s top point guards, many do not have the ability that Smart has defensively as a rookie. If he is able to develop aspects of his offensive game, there is no reason he cannot live up to the hype.

With that being said, Celtics fans will have to be patient. Smart will have his ups and downs this season as every rookie does. His biggest offensive weakness, perimeter shooting, is not an overnight fix, or even a fix that can take place over the course of a season, but rather an area he will need to improve upon a little bit each season.

Smart is not there yet, as he still has a lot of developing to do. There is no telling just how long that development will take, but there is one area of Smart’s offensive game I would like to see him improve this season that will help his future development, and it is both a realistic and achievable goal.

What Smart Can Work On this Season

The one area I’d like to see Marcus Smart improve upon for the rest of the season is his ability to get to the foul line. This is less of something he needs to work on, and more of something he needs to adjust to doing at the NBA level. So far this year, Smart has gotten to the line at a rate of 2.4 free throw attempts per 36 minutes. In his sophomore season at Oklahoma State, Smart averaged 8.9 attempts per 36 minutes. For perspective, James Harden, who leads the league in free throws attempted per game, averages 9.4 free throws attempts per 36 minutes.

In college, Smart excelled in attacking the basket and drawing fouls. Once he got to the line, he shot 75% over his two year college career. It will take some adjusting to the NBA’s bigger and faster players, but Smart’s combination of strength and quickness gives him the ability to draw fouls in the NBA at a comparable rate to what he did in college.

Getting to the foul line is a requisite for being a consistent scorer at the NBA level. Of the league’s top 20 scorers, all but one get to the foul line at least four times per game, and 15 of the 20 get there five times a game or more. Getting to the foul line is an area the Celtics struggle at, ranking 27^th in the league at 20.7 free throw attempts per game. Smart’s abilities could help the Celtics score more consistently.

Getting to the foul line at a higher rate will be an adjustment from what Smart has showed in the first 10 games in his career. A few things factor into his low free throw rate so far, none of which are overly alarming. First, Rajon Rondo has been the Celtics primary ball handler up to this point, and Smart has been used as an off guard for the most part, which is different from the role he played in college and the role the Celtics presumably expect him to play moving forward. With the change in role, I would expect him to attack the basket more.

However, the rate at which Smart settles for long jump shots is a little bit concerning. To start his career, nearly two-thirds of Smart’s shot attempts have come from behind the three point line. It would be easy to write this off as insignificant due to the small sample size, and to some extent it should be. At the same time, Smart’s three point attempt rate in college (percentage of field goal attempts from three point range) was .425 his sophomore season. This while only shooting 30% from deep. For reference, Stephen Curry (probably the best shooter on the planet) has a three point attempt rate of .453 this season.

That being said, Smart was asked to carry the offense at Oklahoma State, and he did a fine job at it. He does have the tendency to settle for long jump shots, a trend that has continued in the brief start of his career, but that is a tradeoff Oklahoma State was willing to accept. For the Celtics, as long as Smart is aggressive attacking the basket and getting to the foul line, they can deal with him taking a few long threes, but the focus needs to remain on attacking the rim. Overall, Smart’s game is predicated on attacking and getting to the free throw line by using his superior strength and athleticism, and until he improves his jump shot, his focus should be on translating his strengths to the next level.