◦ ARCHIVE INDEX — browse every page
Red's Army

Your Morning Dump… Where Jeff Green’s numbers betray him

John - Red's Army (@RedsArmy_John) December 10, 2014 Jeff Green, Marcus Smart, The Morning Dump 26 Comments

jeff green in warmups

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big storyline. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Let’s preface this by saying that the good has far outweighed the bad when it comes to individual performance this season for Green. There’s really only one eyesore — the difference in the Celtics’ team production when Green is on the floor and when he’s off it. The Celtics have been remarkably better without Green this season, continuing a career-long trend in which his teams simply tend to perform better without him.

What’s staggering about this season is the disparity in the numbers given the quality of his play. When Green is off the floor, the Celtics own an offensive rating of 106.5, which is 3.3 points better than the team’s season average and 4.6 points better than when Green is on the court. What’s more, Boston’s defensive rating is 100.6 without Green, or 4.8 points below the team’s season average and 6 points below when Green is on the court.

[…] To put it another way, the numbers suggest that the Celtics are 10 points better per 100 possessions when Green is off the court than on it. It’s hard to understand how exactly the team numbers can reflect so poorly when Green appears to be playing better from an individual perspective.

ESPN Boston: Green’s success isn’t translating

There is little doubt right now that Jeff Green is having the best individual season of his career.  The on/off numbers, though, are a bit surprising.

When you look at Boston’s best 5-man lineup, Green and the rest of the now-regular starters (which means I’m including Tyler Zeller) are easily ahead of any other with a +45.  Green, Zeller, Jared Sullinger, and Avery Bradley make up Boston’s best 4-man unit at +49, just ahead of the 4-man unit where Green is replaced by Rondo.

Some combination of starters leads all of the +/- ratings of these units, and that includes Green.  I know +/- is a far from perfect metric, but it at least shows that something could be amiss with the other numbers.

Remember, Green is generally on the floor late in games when the Celtics have been generally coughing up leads.  Meanwhile, the second unit just padded its stats pretty nicely against Washington, while Green only got back into the game when the comeback was complete and the game was neck-and-neck. Which is to say that while the numbers say one thing, it’s very possible that Green’s on/off numbers are being skewed by some really crazy events this season.

But, if you read that link, you’ll see other starters’ numbers aren’t similarly thrown off.  So maybe there is something more meaningful to be pulled out of Chris Forsberg’s analysis.

As always, it’s so hard to figure out Jeff Green. Even when he’s doing well and performing rather consistently, there’s something else there.

Not that we have to worry about this long.  If he keeps this up, he’s definitely opting out of his deal.  He might opt out even if he doesn’t. But there’s no way a nearly 20 ppg guy will sit back and just accept $9 million.  Not in this NBA. Not with the money being thrown around (and about to be).

So let’s not get too caught up in his success or failure here.  I doubt Green is part of the Celtics future plans.

Page 2:  Smart realizes that was just one game

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — As Celtics fans wait to see what Marcus Smart can do for an encore tonight against the Hornets, it’s a good sign that the rookie’s 23-point breakout in Washington on Monday didn’t leave him with an inflated head.

“No,” said Smart, who is still shaking off the effects of a sprained left ankle. “Not at all. Back to being humble. That was just one game. That’s what it is. We’ve still got to come back and play (tonight).”

Herald: Smart won’t bask in afterglow

Lost in all of the furor of the Smart-fueled comeback is the fact that the Celtics still lost the game, partially because of a couple of Smart’s own decisions.

Like, with the Celtics up two in the second overtime, with the ball and :53 on the clock, Smart took the inbounds pass and heaved a 3 with :22 on the shot clock rather than work the ball, wear Washington down even further, and get a better shot.

Like I said yesterday, Smart’s performance in that game was brilliant, but he’s still prone to hero ball, which can be a bit frustrating for a guy who is shooting 34.5% on the season and 27.8% from 3.  As the usual suspects cried out how the Wizards game was the turning point for the Celtics in the Smart/Rondo saga, they missed out on two key things:

1:  Smart wasn’t really running the point. Even Turner was.  Smart came in for Avery Bradley and played the typical Bradley role of ball-hawking defender and off-the-ball scorer.

2:  Smart’s 7-14 shooting night (including 4-8 from deep) is an aberration from his usual shooting this season.

This doesn’t diminish what he did in the Washington game. This supports what he said afterwards.

“That was just one game.”

The Celtics have to go back out there and play Charlotte tonight. Smart has to go out there and do it again tonight.  And the next night.  And the next night.  Everyone does.

As much as some people might want to, Marcus Smart’s not getting caught up in what happened in Washington.  If the Celtics lose winnable games this month and Smart starts missing shots, that performance will largely be forgotten by Christmas.  This is a “what have you done for me lately” world… and there’s a lot of things still left to do this season that could completely re-shape, or reinforce, how we look back on the events of Monday night.

Related links:  Globe:  Benching Rondo, starters, the right call  |  CSNNE:  Will controversy erupt over Smart-for-Rondo switch

The rest of the links:

CSNNE:  Report: Nets explore dealing All Stars  |  ESPN Boston:  Doc Rivers executive order in LA  |  Nets exploring potential blockbusters  |  WEEI:  Potential Rondo trade barometer v4.0

Like this Article? Share it!

  • BillRussell

    can’t wait to see this kid (Smart) develop- KG wld have LOVED him.

  • swissflix

    I am glad Smart wants to play hero ball. So many on our team want to do the opposite at the end of games.
    Also, did we ever pick on Paulie for playing hero ball?

    • Rick Rice

      Comparing Smart to Paul Pierce? Come On!

      • swissflix

        It’s about the here and now, baby! :D

    • CoolRapQuote

      “Paulie” is a name most associated with Itlian Americans from east coast towns. It sounds kinda weird to think of Paul Pierce as “Paulie”. But you seem like a legit Pierce fan so call him whatever you want! Lol

      • Sean McLaughlin

        lol, gotta admit, “Paulie” sounded weird to me, too…

        • CoolRapQuote

          Yeah, he’s from Switzerland though. His perspective on nick names isn’t the same as ours probably. Just wanted to clear it up for him. Lol

          • swissflix

            Thanx for the help buddy! Yes, from Zurich, Switzerland. 3 Hours from Milan, Italy. “Paulie” was meant to be an affectionate term for our HoFamer;)

          • CoolRapQuote

            Haha no problem buddy. It’s just more of a name we associate with fat old Italian white guys in America.

      • Curt Hays

        P DOUBLE!

      • swissflix

        Oops, did not know Paulie is a derogatory term in the USA. Was not my intention to make fun of PP, of course. Gotta admit though, “Paulie” makes me think of the Sopranos.

  • Sean McLaughlin

    Yeah, I’m not a fan of people insisting he’s a point guard…. He seems to work much better as a 2. Don’t know why people think he’s Rondo’s replacement. If we get rid of (or lose) Rondo we’re just going to have to find another floor general/facilitator. The kid’s amazing in many ways, don’t get me wrong. Glad Ainge picked him up… just not a fan of him at point. I could see him starting at the 2 next year.

    • Rick Rice

      Tony Allen clone – A Rondo / Smart back court could be monstorus!! Bring AB off the bench for some offensive spark and to continue the tough D tone set by Marcus, or Trade AB for a quality Rim Protecting Big. . Probably not going to happen until AB’s next injury (not wishing that on him in any way) but if / when he goes down he will likely lose that spot to Smart just as TraitoRay lost it to him! And Preemptively – Yeah Miami might have been the best career choice for TraitoRay but it still makes him a traitor (someone who defects to the enemy)

      • Sean McLaughlin

        lol @ TraitoRay

      • Curt Hays

        Not disagreeing, but he’s a FAR better ball handler…

        and he can’t jump out the roof

  • forever_green

    Jeff needs to improve his D.

    • Rick Rice

      He’s been playing really tough D lately!

  • RedwasKing

    What a negative dump. While some of it is valid, I think we should be proud of this team beating one of the best teams in the East, and then the next day almost beating them again on their home floor. If we can squeak into the playoffs, I could see this team being a tough out

    • Rick Rice

      Agree 100%

  • Brad P

    So I looked at the schedule and it’s time for us to beat up on some bad teams. We’ve faced almost nothing but playoff squads so far.

    We might approach .500 in a a couple weeks. *Knocks on wood*

  • Pingback: Boston Celtics Daily Links 12/10/14 - Sports Train

  • Pingback: Boston Celtics Daily Links 12/10/14 - Fenway Living

  • Pingback: Boston Celtics Daily Links 12/10/14 - 247 Sports News

  • Jake Gruber

    The point you missed is that it is possible that those leads are blown in part because of Green being on the floor. And also that maybe part of the reason the celtics came back on the floor was because they played better without him on the floor. You can’t justify the numbers by using as the answer the very thing we are questioning.

    • Andre

      Think some of that is due to Green’s pacing, he seems to have nothing left at the end. It’s things like this that make we wonder if there still a little niggling of a heart murmur or other similar issue that he is dealing with. Which will make him worthless on the trading block.

  • Sean McLaughlin

    Who else is excited to see Tyler give Cody a nuggie or wet willy on the court tonight??? lol