Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.
FiveThirtyEight released updated CARMELO player projections last week, and it was hard not to notice the glitzy prediction for third-year guard Marcus Smart.
CARMELO didn’t just predict a monster leap for Smart this season; it pegged him a “future All-Star” with a value of $156.5 million over the next five seasons. After Smart produced 2.5 Wins Above Replacement last season, CARMELO projects him to more than double that total this season (5.1) and suggests he’ll make a pronounced offensive leap that will raise his on-court value to $26.2 million this season (he’ll actually earn just $3.6 million on his rookie-scale deal). […]
CARMELO projects Smart to have the fifth-biggest leap in WAR among all NBA players next year. He trails only Anthony Davis (plus-3.7), Kristaps Porzingis (plus-3.1), Kyrie Irving (plus-2.8), and Andrew Wiggins (plus-2.8).
ESPN Boston – Is the Boston Celtics’ next star already on the roster?
If you can’t get enough advanced stats, then the Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is for you. It has nothing to do with Carmelo Anthony, although that would be weirdly amusing if it did.
Anyway, whether or not Smart makes the leap will hinge on his shooting, which he knows he must improve. If he also figures out that his flopping is counter-productive, then perhaps CARMELO will be accurate about Smart’s upcoming season. In that case: wow!
On Page 2: Your annual installment of Boogie unhappiness
The Sacramento Kings have long been the epitome of dysfunction in the NBA, although the hiring of Dave Joerger as head coach appeared to be a step in the right direction to get things back on track. But because it’s the Kings, the drama never ends. Star DeMarcus Cousins stoked the flames with some bizarre comments at Team USA’s training camp on Monday.
SB Nation – DeMarcus Cousins says he doesn’t ‘really understand what’s going on’ with the Kings
Remember last summer when Boogie Cousins and coach George Karl were said to be feuding? And that led to lots of speculation that perhaps their relationship would become so toxic that the Kings would put Cousins on the trading block? And that maybe the Celtics could pry him loose? (Which would thrill half of Boston’s fan base and outrage the other half.)
Yeah, that didn’t happen. Karl was canned and now Joerger is there to make nice with the All-Star center. And yet, once again we have Cousins showing his displeasure with the Sacramento situation. It’s probably nothing. A new arena will open in Sacramento this fall, and even the hapless Kings aren’t stupid enough to trade the face of their franchise with that coming up. We think.
At least not right now. But check back at the trade deadline.
Related: NBC Sports – DeMarcus Cousins didn’t understand Kings’ offseason moves
On Page 3: Meanwhile, on the Westbrook/Griffin front…
Teams over the cap could sign Zeller to an offer sheet using an exception, but the lone exception more lucrative than Boston’s qualifying offer of $3.7 million is the mid-level, which is worth $5.6 million.
You’d think Zeller, still just 26 and a proven rotational center, would have received an offer like that already. In fact, it’s quite possible that he has but hasn’t signed it. And if he hasn’t, then he’s still waiting to sign his qualifying offer.
Why?
The conventional answer is that he’s hoping to negotiate a new contract with the Celtics. But the more probable reason is that Zeller is aware of a potential sign-and-trade scenario that’d pay him an exorbitantly large sum of money. […]
Of all the star players whose names have been discussed as options for the Celtics, there’s really only one in which a sign-and-trade for Zeller would actually be necessary. It’s the one no one takes seriously because it sounds so outrageous: The scenario where the Celtics acquire both Russell Westbrook and Blake Griffin.
That’s what the Thunder are hoping to do next summer, according to The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski. But the Celtics, theoretically, are a team with the assets to do that now.
CSNNE – Celtics’ Actions Indicate They’re Still Angling For A Blockbuster
Kevin O’Connor is a perceptive NBA writer, and in making this case even he admits it’s a “wild hypothetical scenario.” Still, O’Connor does explain that it’s actually possible for the Celtics to get these two superstars by completing a convoluted series of moves.
Yes, possible, but not probable. There’s only a Powerball-odds chance of it happening. But if Ainge could pull it off, at minimum the race for Executive of the Year would be over.
And, finally: No. 1 but not Top 10?
#NBASummerLeague PER:
1. Terry Rozier: 36.7
2. Jarnell Stokes: 36.1
3. Shawn Long: 32.3
4. Trey Lyles: 32.1https://t.co/KvI7JtOzxi— RealGM (@RealGM) July 19, 2016
As noted in Monday’s Morning Dump, Jaylen Brown was selected for All-NBA Summer League Second Team. However, oddly enough, Terry Rozier wasn’t chosen for either the first or second team.
We’re not going to get upset about Rozier’s omission (say it together: “It’s only Summer League”), but it’s puzzling. The second-year guard was clearly the standout for Boston throughout the Salt Lake City and Las Vegas sessions. And now we know that Rozier led all summer players in Player Efficiency Rating (the stat that standardizes overall production). Even for just a handful of games, 36.7 PER is excellent (for reference, Isaiah Thomas led the Celts last season with 21.5). Rozier was also fourth among Summer Leaguers in offensive rating at 147.8.
But no problem: I.O.S.L. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Related: CBS Sports – Handing out final awards for the 2016 Las Vegas Summer League (Jaylen wins the “John Wall Award: For player who looked great but let’s get that shooting percentage up”) | Boston.com – 5 takeaways from Celtics summer league | Globe – Which Celtics earned best grades in summer league?
The Rest of the Links:
MassLive – Russell Westbrook trade rumors: Oklahoma City Thunder telling teams star isn’t currently available
The Players’ Tribune – Nellie Ball (in which Don Nelson offers an ode to the genius of Red Auerbach)
ESPN – Timberwolves remain patient on Kevin Garnett decision
CBS Boston – 5 Remaining Free Agents Who Could Help The Celtics
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