If there was a list of the top 5 most confounding players in the NBA, Jeff Green would surely be on it. He often shows flashes of greatness that leave fans wanting more, like his 43 point performance against LeBron and the Heat a couple of years back. In that game, Green showed the skill and assertiveness that had Boston fans believing they had a go-to guy once the Pierce and Garnett era ended. Green got the chance to be the go-to guy last year and again showed flashes of greatness, but his weaknesses were also highlighted throughout the year.
The problem with Green’s 43 point performance, similar to the Celtics problem Friday night, is that LeBron James went for 37 points and 12 assists.
Now, LeBron is the best basketball player in the world. He went for a season high 41 points Friday night against the Cs, 10 of which came during the 4th quarter comeback effort. There isn’t a guy in the league who can guard him. But if you were to build a prototype of a defender to guard LeBron, it would probably be a guy just like Jeff Green. He’s 6’9, is reasonably strong, has long arms, and is very athletic. The mix of athleticism and strength gives Green the tools to be very good wing defender.
But Green struggles against quicker, athletic wings. James was able to get whatever he wanted in the 4th quarter Friday night, including two late drives where he muscled Green out-of-the-way and made layups.
It may seem odd to ask more from a player who is averaging a career high 18.9 points per game to start the season, but the Celtics need more from Jeff Green. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
What Do the Numbers Tell Us?
Green’s 18.9 points per game is great, but he is only shooting 43% from the floor and 33% from 3. And while 8 games may be a small sample size, Green only shot 41% from the floor last year and only 44% for his career. This is a low number considering that Green is an athletic wing who can both attack the basket and knock down open shots. Green is only averaging 4.1 free throw attempts per game after averaging a similar 4.3 last year. For a player of Green’s size and strength, the Celtics should be able to isolate him in the mid post area, similar to how they isolated Paul Pierce, and allow Green to attack and get to the foul line. But Green does not excel at getting to the foul line, which is much of the reason why he has failed to be a consistent scorer for the majority of his career. The Celtics have made it a point to give Green mid post touches to start the season, but almost all of those possessions end in Green taking a fall away jump shot, rather than using his athletic ability to get to the rim and the foul line. Green’s poor ball handling also contributes to his low free throw totals.
Looking at some of the deeper stats, the Celtics appear to be better off with Green on the bench than on the court. So far this season, the Celtics offensive rating with Green on the court is +0.7, or relatively the same as when Green is off the court. Their defensive rating, however, is -3.2, giving Green a net rating of -2.5. Looking back to last season (larger sample size) the Celtics offensive rating was -3.8 with Green on the court and their defensive rating was -2 with Green, for a net rating of -5.8. Even going back to the 2012-13 season, Green’s net rating is -1.2. The Celtics, over the past two seasons and the first 8 games of this season, have consistently been better when Jeff Green is on the bench.
The defensive numbers stand out in particular, especially over a large sample size. Green struggles with quicker small forwards and guarding shooters coming off of screens. He is also a below average help defender. For a guy who has all the tools to be successful on the defensive end, he has consistently had a negative impact on that end of the floor.
Does He Fit?
While Jeff Green is still a talented offensive player, it is no secret that he would be a better fit as a 3rd or 4th option for a contending team rather than Boston’s number 1 option. He would fit in well with a team who could use him either as a small forward or a power forward who could space the floor in small ball lineups. He would be an added scoring punch while not being expected to put up close to 20 every night the way he is expected to in Boston.
Should the Celtics Trade Jeff Green?
In my opinion, yes, they should. Green has a player option for next season, and while it’s not clear whether or not Green plans to opt out, the Celtics probably would not want to retain his services even if he did. If Green opts out, it is because he believes he can earn more than 9.2 million he will make if he opts in. At 28 years old, the Celtics would likely have to commit over 10 million a year for multiple years, possibly even 3 or 4, to get Green to come back. Why should the Celtics spend that money when the team has been more effective with Green on the bench? The money could be better spent on a rim protector, or a wing that can knock down 3’s at a high rate and play solid defense.
If Green were to accept his player option and come back to Boston, the Celtics lose out on an extra 9.2 million in cap space, which they may need to sign an impact player or two. If the Cs are able to bring back Rajon Rondo, this extra cap space could be used to bring in a talented big man to pair with him. The cap space this offseason is more valuable than another year of a negative net on court rating.
Green still has decent value, especially to a contending team looking to add flexibility at the wing position. I would trade him to Indiana for Luis Scola’s expiring contract and Ian Mahinmi. The Celtics would clear about 5 million in cap space at the end of the year and would also be able to see what their defense looks like with a rim protector in the middle. I would trade him to Memphis for Tayshaun Prince’s expiring deal and one of their younger players along with a draft pick, or Washington for a couple of expiring contracts and a draft pick. This may seem like a low return for a guy who is currently averaging 18.9 points per game, but if the Celtics were able to get guaranteed cap space and a younger player with some potential I think they should pull the trigger. As we move closer to the deadline, many teams will covet a player like Green to help them make a playoff push, and Danny Ainge could possibly squeeze some more value out of a deal.
Moving Green by the deadline would also allow the Celtics to play James Young more minutes on a nightly basis come the second half of the season. As fans, sometimes we get attached to a player we like and fail to see the larger picture. The Celtics have been a better team with Jeff Green on the bench the past two seasons, and the trend has continued this year as well. A trade would benefit both the Celtics and Jeff Green in the long run.