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Celtics lose again, now in 5th heading into lottery

John - Red's Army (@RedsArmy_John) April 18, 2014 Draft 22 Comments

Of course the Celtics lost again.  Though it’s not really THAT big of a deal.  The difference is negligible as far as draft odds go.  Sean Deveney of the Sporting News has the proper perspective:

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  • Curt Hays

    Does anyone have any bold predictions of what surprise Danny will give us this Summer?

    • Curt Hays

      Could be he goes for a legit starting center (Andre Drummond, please), but because he publicly admitted that’s what he needs, I’m not sure that’s his primary target.

      Did he say that in order to facilitate the acquisition of such a player? If so, does that not damage his negotiating position?

      Does he get rid of Uncle Jeff and pursue a replacement for Larry Bird and Paul Pierce? LeBron isn’t going anywhere, neither is Paul George. Does KD leave this Summer after falling short yet again in OKC?

      • eddysamson

        I say we draft Embiid or another big with potential with our Nets pick and trade Jeff Green for Thadd Young.

        Can’t forget about Iverson either, he could play for us this year maybe taking Vitor’s spot if he’s not guaranteed. Could be that defensive Center we need.

        • LA Flake

          Yeah, Colton Iverson’s supposed to be real physical like Perk. Gotta like that. And I’d love to see Doug McDermott fall to us at #18.

          • KGino

            #17*. But me too. Mcbuckets!

        • Paul Yee

          I wish Philly would do that deal. Not sure why they would though. Thad is younger, better, and on a shorter contract.

      • LA Flake

        Since all “Kevins” are supposed to play here, I’m going to assume that Durant is walking through that door soon. As for Drummond, Danny may be able to swing a deal for him since we’ll have a high lotto pick (barring Adam Silver doesn’t rig it in favor of the Flakers or some sh*t. I won’t put it past him).

        • Jake Gruber

          lol you’d be content with drafting getting the number one pick and drafting a top prospect and a guy who scored the most points in his league’s history? me too….!

          • LA Flake

            Yup. And I’d like a lap dance from Scarlett Johanssen in my bedroom, please.

          • GreenbirdCro

            I can only ‘up’ this comment once :(
            But I would ‘up’ myself zillion times if Natasha Romanoff would dance in my lap
            ahhhh
            Celtics, who?!

      • Astarot

        When you mentioned “legit starting center” I thought of Gortat (good all around player) but there’s a “but” a): offers for him will start at 9-10 mil/yr. and b): it depends on if they can get Embiid and even if Embiid is out of the picture they still have quite a lot of bodies (maybe not a “legit” C) but Iverson could be a pleasant surprise (and much cheaper) and remember it won’t be a “one year rebuild” so we can wait for the guys like Iverson or Olynyk to develop.

    • bill_nair

      We get a top 3 pick and Wiggins or Jabari due to a slip. Danny swings a deal for a rim protector (Sanders, Asik, Chandler) and we get in as a 7-8 seed next year.

      Don’t think it’s TOO unrealistic, but totally dependent on the draft. I have no plan B.

      • GreenbirdCro

        While I’m in the Marvel mood, and thinking of their heroines…
        Plan B: Ask Scarlet Witch to throw a hex or two, change the history just a bit aaaaand:
        heal Bird & McHale, ressurect Len & Reggie, repair Radja’s knees, erase Pitino, allow us draft Duncan & Durant, prevent KG’s/Perk’s/Shaq’s injuries, get us all three of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins… and reverse history of Fakers and Clippers (easily done by making us take certain Kobe at #6 instead of certain walker named ‘Toine), and finally just trying not be too selfish… retain Sonics in Seattle. :)

      • RedsLoveChild

        Embiid and Sanders—teamed up with “3 janitors”— is a 3 or 4 seed.

  • KWAPT

    Still have 33% chance at one of the top 3 picks..all & all not too bad.

    • frickenWaaaltah

      Based on the way the drawing is done, no, it’s really not 33% and probably not even close to that. Calculating the precise odds of a team walking away winning at least one drawing is a lot more complicated than whatever you did because the combinations of the team that won the previous pick become null, so who wins each drawing matters a lot for the odds of the drawing(s) that come after it.

      Short version: it’s probably something more like ~13-18% because this system skews the 2nd and 3rd picks heavily towards the teams with the top chances. Danger: long hazy, mathy post ahead…

      The first drawing is for first place. They get revealed on TV from 3rd to 1st, but they get drawn 1-2-3. This one is easy; best odds has 250 out of 1000 (25%) and this year Boston has 103 (10.3%).

      But the odds for the 2nd and 3rd picks change a lot based on who gets the pick(s) before each drawing:

      EX1: Milwaukee has the most chances and draws the 1st pick; their 250 numbers are now null and if the lotto machine brings any of them up again, the result in to do another draw. So for the 2nd pick, the Celtics odds would then be 103 out of 750 = 13.733 percent. These are the best possible odds for the Celtics getting the 2nd pick, at least as far as just the drawing itself goes.

      EX2: Phoenix has the least chances and yet draws the 1st pick; their 5 numbers are now null. So for the 2nd pick, the Celtics odds would then be 103 out of 995 = 10.35% or barely better than their odds for the 1st pick. This would be the worst possible chance for them at the time of the 2nd place drawing.

      The best possible odds for the Celtics winning the 3rd pick drawing (for the drawing itself once it is occurring) would be if 1st place Milwaukee(250) got the 1st pick and 2nd place Philly(199) got the 2nd pick (or if Philly got the 1st and Milwaukee got the 2nd, same difference when it comes to the drawing for the 3rd pick). So that would be: 1000 – 250 – 199 = 449, so 103 / 449 = ~22.94%.

      The worst possible odds for the Celtics getting the 3rd pick would be if 14th place Phoenix (5) got the 1st pick, and 13th place Minnesota (6) got the second pick (or if, as above, Minny got #1 and Phoenix got #2) . So that would be 1000 – 5 – 6 = 989, so 103 / 989 so ~10.41%.

      Because the combinations are neither re-assigned or still active for each drawing, calculating the precise odds for a given number of combinations to win at least one drawing is a huge pita. But just eyeballing it from the above mins and maxes, it’s probably more like ~15% to ~18% chance of walking away with one pick.

      At this point, something obvious about this lotto system should be obvious: the thing about this system is that after each pick, your odds either stay about the same (if somebody way below you went), or get way better (if somebody above you or right below you went). Thus, the odds for the 2nd and 3rd drawings skew heavily towards the teams with the most chances.

      It’s easiest to see in the case of the team with the worst record and most chances. So for Milwaukee this year, (250 chances), the odds they get the 2nd pick are best if Philly(199) got the 1st, so 1000-199 = 801, so 250/801 = ~31.21%. Their odds are worst if 14th place Phoenix gets it: 1000-5 = 995, so 250/995 = 25.13% (about the same as their original chances for the 1st).

      Milwaukee’s odds for the 3rd pick are best if Philly (199) and Orlando (156) get the 1st and 2nd picks: 1000 – 199 – 156 = 645, so 250 / 645 = ~38.76. Milwaukee’s worst chance for the 3rd pick is if Phoenix (5) and Minnesota (6) get the first and second picks, in which case Milwaukee’s odds are 1000 – 11 = 989 so 250 / 989 = ~25.28%.

      As I write this, I’m not sure what the formula for the precise odds for a team walking away with at least one of the top 3 picks would be given the complex way this whole thing gets done, but the % chance for any team to get either the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick can’t be higher than their best odds for winning the 3rd pick, so in Milwaukee’s case this year that’s less than ~38.76% and for Boston it’s less than ~22.94%.

  • KGino

    But the Nets won their drawing, so we pick #17 instead of #18. :)

  • Astarot

    It’s all very interesting what you’re saying guys. Drummond trade to me not possible cuz’ Ainge’d have to give them Rondo so. If someone like KD walks away from OKC well pull the trigger go for it obviously but in my opinion that’s even less possible. Young trade- well not Green/Young trade I don’t think Philly would be interested. So it all comes down to the draft. I’d say draft big if Embiid is available if not draft the best guy up there (I mean with the biggest upside). With 17/18 pick well to me McDermott is the best choice. Now the roster: bring back Iverson no matter who they draft, get rid of Green(not sure what kind of a deal Ainge could get for him) picks – what picks, player how good players? Get rid of Anthony and Wallace (the hardest one to do), bring back Pierce for reasonable money and Pressey, extend Bradley (8 miil/yr max) and work with the cap space To sum up, draft will be the most important this summer unless some big name will appear on the market. Top 3 pick would make the decisions and situation easier but that’s not up to Ainge if they fall out of the top 3 it’ll get tricky both with draft choices and other decisions (plan B will be extremely hard). Rebuilding through the draft, I’m not a big fun of it but it gives them the best position for next year and obviously with those small contracts it’s creating more and more cap space each year when free agency class will be worth to look at.

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  • frickenWaaaltah

    Not a big deal in that it means Utah gets 104 numbers while the Celtics now get 103 numbers. The % difference is almost meaningless.