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Assessing Avery Bradley’s value

Chuck - Red's Army March 3, 2014 Avery Bradley, Celtics News 15 Comments

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ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan tries to put a value on the top 30 free agents in the NBA. Elhassan doesn’t project what each player will earn in free agency, instead he determines worth by examining many factors:

Remember, this is sorted by the AAV (average annual value) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA. To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I used as a member of the Phoenix Suns‘ front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things.

On his list, the Celtics Avery Bradley at #25:

2013-14 Salary: $2.5 million | Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, three years

Bradley is one of the NBA’s premier backcourt defensive players, but he poses a bit of an offensive dilemma in that he lacks the playmaking creativity to play point guard and isn’t a reliable enough shooter to play off ball. A comparable would be Tony Allen‘s four-year, $20 million deal, but Bradley’s smaller size doesn’t give him as much versatility defensively as Allen.

$4.5 million per year? I’d run down Causeway Street nekked if the Celtics could sign him at that number. Forget about it.

Bradley is a restricted free agent (not UFA as stated in the story). The qualifying offer for next year is $3,581,302. Under this scenario, the Celtics will have a choice of whether to make the qualifying offer, or not.  If they don’t, he’s a free agent.  If they do, the “restricted” free agency begins.  From there, Bradley has a choice: He can accept that qualifying offer, play for one year under that deal, and become an unrestricted free agent the following year. Or he can wait to see what other teams offer. The “restricted” part means the Celtics have the right to match offers any other team makes.*

It’s been reported that Bradley refused a 4 year, $24 million contract from the Celtics and is looking for upwards of $8 million annually. There were rumors that Danny Ainge was soliciting offers for AB at the trade deadline, so maybe the gap is too wide.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, don’t bother predicting any off-season moves until draft night. Where the Celtics land in the lottery and whom is available to them will impact everyone.

*This explanation of RFA was taken from a previous post written by John. If it’s incorrect, yell at him.

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  • Curt Hays

    I agree with every word. Idk if I’d run down Causeway nekid though. It has to be quite cold.

    Someone please find a reason to yell at John.

  • RedsLoveChild

    Bradley wants $8M per year?
    With his already ridiculous history of injuries, at just 23?

    AB spends more time in “rehab” than Lindsay Lohan!

  • Herman Bubbert

    I don’t care if Bradley wears the Celtic uniform past this point, so I don’t share the enthusiasm of the author. With that said, the value is accurate to just a tad high given Bradley’s laundry list of limitations.

  • bill_nair

    Wasnt there a fair amount of yelling at John a week or 2 ago? Give him a break.

    On the topic: I think he has Avery’s value about right. The Courtney Lee’s contract is what Bradley should get. Nothing more. He hasn’t helped himself being injured (what seems) every other week this season.

  • Jester00

    sign him bottom line

  • CelticMaclean

    Anything over 6.5 is getting to much. And i really don’t see a team out there that he would/could offer close to his 8m wanted. I think the most likely scenario is the QO

  • Rjd12345

    4 years for 24 mil is fair, given his injury history and inability(refusal?) to pass. If reports are true that he seeks 8mil, I don’t think he will find it here or anywhere else (especially under the new CBA making contracts all 4-year contracts to non-stars look bad). It will also factor in who the C’s draft. If we get Wiggins, Exum or Smart, the C’s will be much less inclined to sign him for that much.

  • Jacquard Causeway

    $4.5 million per year sounds totally reasonable. I wouldn’t sign him for anything more than that. Avery is not a must-keep kind of player. The days of handing out deals well over the MLE to every decent role player are gone.

  • swissflix

    They let Luol Deng go because they did not want to overpay him. Sometimes you gotta be firm and refuse to overpay a player. If not, you will wind up with contracts such as the one Gerald signed.
    Losing a player to free agency sometimes makes sense. Like freeing up cap space for another player.

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