ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan tries to put a value on the top 30 free agents in the NBA. Elhassan doesn’t project what each player will earn in free agency, instead he determines worth by examining many factors:
Remember, this is sorted by the AAV (average annual value) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA. To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I used as a member of the Phoenix Suns‘ front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things.
On his list, the Celtics Avery Bradley at #25:
2013-14 Salary: $2.5 million | Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, three years
Bradley is one of the NBA’s premier backcourt defensive players, but he poses a bit of an offensive dilemma in that he lacks the playmaking creativity to play point guard and isn’t a reliable enough shooter to play off ball. A comparable would be Tony Allen‘s four-year, $20 million deal, but Bradley’s smaller size doesn’t give him as much versatility defensively as Allen.
$4.5 million per year? I’d run down Causeway Street nekked if the Celtics could sign him at that number. Forget about it.
Bradley is a restricted free agent (not UFA as stated in the story). The qualifying offer for next year is $3,581,302. Under this scenario, the Celtics will have a choice of whether to make the qualifying offer, or not. If they don’t, he’s a free agent. If they do, the “restricted” free agency begins. From there, Bradley has a choice: He can accept that qualifying offer, play for one year under that deal, and become an unrestricted free agent the following year. Or he can wait to see what other teams offer. The “restricted” part means the Celtics have the right to match offers any other team makes.*
It’s been reported that Bradley refused a 4 year, $24 million contract from the Celtics and is looking for upwards of $8 million annually. There were rumors that Danny Ainge was soliciting offers for AB at the trade deadline, so maybe the gap is too wide.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, don’t bother predicting any off-season moves until draft night. Where the Celtics land in the lottery and whom is available to them will impact everyone.
*This explanation of RFA was taken from a previous post written by John. If it’s incorrect, yell at him.