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How we see it goin’ down: Celtics vs Heat

Chuck - Red's Army March 18, 2013 Gametime, Previews 15 Comments

Tip: 8PM     Court: TD Garden     Watch it: ESPN    Hear it: WEEI

Referees: Scott Foster, Matt Boland and David Guthrie 

Spread: MIA -5.0

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The Matchup

Record: 36-29 Record: 51-14
At home: 24-9 On road: 21-11
Streak: Won 2 Streak: Won 22

Leaders Leaders
Buckets: Pierce (18.5 ppg) Buckets: LeBron James (26.5 ppg)
Boards: Garnett (7.8 rpg) Boards: James (8.2 rpg)
Dimes: Pierce (4.7 apg) Dimes: James (7.1 apg)

For the Stat Geeks: For the Stat Geeks:
Offensive Rating: 102.5 (24th NBA) Offensive Rating: 112.7 (2nd NBA)
Defensive Rating: 102.0 (4th NBA) Defensive Rating: 104.3 (10th NBA)
Pace: 91.4 (18th NBA) Pace: 90.6 (23rd NBA)

Last time

The season series is 1-1.  The Celtics needed an all-around team effort to beat Miami 100-98 in double-overtime on Jan. 27. This was the day we learned Rajon Rondo tore his ACL. The Heat beat the Celtics 120-107 in the season opener.  With LeBron James, Miami is 0-5 in Boston during the regular season.

This time

Get it to:  Paul Pierce

As if Paul Pierce didn’t already have enough on his plate tonight (guarding LBJ, playing point forward, be the team’s top scoring threat), he’ll have to do even more if Kevin Garnett sits out. Despite the 38% shooting vs Miami this season, Pierce’s all around numbers are superb: 20 ppg, 9 rpg, 7.5 apg. We might need an epic triple-double effort from the Truth in this one.

Gotta stop:  Dwyane Wade

Wade has really turned it on over the last two months. He’s averaging 23 ppg on 53% shooting in February and March. On the bright side, he’s shooting at a 38% clip vs Boston this season AND he’ll have to deal with a fully healthy and in-sync Avery Bradley. As I do with most games vs Miami, I believe the Celtics should try to limit everyone not named LeBron because that’s rather impossible.

The Wild Card: Jason Terry

I feel like we NEED a huge game from JET. Terry needs to outscore Ray Allen and the other Heat perimeter role players to give the Celtics their best chance. When Terry’s hot, he’s emotional and the crowd feeds off him and his antics.

How we see it goin’ down

My heart really wants me to pick the Celtics, with or without Kevin Garnett. One could argue the Heat are dealing with mental (heavy burden of a 22-game winning streak) and physical (2nd night road back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 nights) fatigue.  It’s possible they could overlook the Celtics knowing our defensive jedi warrior is sitting on his couch instead of patrolling the lane. Wouldn’t we all love to see the Heat come out flat and get jacked up by the Celtics in a turbo-charged TD Garden?

I just can’t do it.

Prediction w/o Garnett:

Heat 102

Bos 89

Prediction w/ Garnett:

Heat 93

Celtics 92

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  • Lundy48

    I say celtics 102 Miami 98 without kg.

  • EricKrasnauskas

    You’re very pragmatic in your predictions. Win or lose, it’s going to be dramatic…I’m taking my ulcer medication _now_.

  • LA Flake

    LBJ’s line tonight:
    32 points on 6-15 FGA
    19-28 FTM/FTA
    6 assists
    8 rebounds
    18 blocks
    9 steals
    13 charges taken
    1 personal foul

    The game:
    C’s 102
    Heat 99

    • Eddie Allen Powe

      I normally hate your comments, but the 18 blocks prediction made me laugh

      • LA Flake

        LeBron’s just THAT good. He’s so physical. He plays so hard. Yet never fouls. Amazing!

        • Mike C

          Yeah, it is AMAZING. Every time he drives the lane he either pushs off the defender or throws his leg into the defenders stomach, yet never gets called for a foul. Amazing….you got that right!

    • zippittyay

      and surely a few plays where he draws the charge AND gets credit for a blocked shot.

  • eddysamson

    Hmm I’m not so sure not having KG will be as bad as you all think. It will mean JG will get the start and will be on LeBron right from the get-go. Also, the team plays MUCH more fast paced without KG on the floor and isn’t that the way we tried to build the team specifically to beat the Heat?

    I’m thinking KG will stall our offense if he plays tonight (they tend to defer to him and he’s been missing a lot plus his injury if he plays hes gunna be like 2 for 13). But he will still be necessary on D. So this one is kind of tough to call. I think the difference in score between the two teams will be about the same regardless of whether or not KG plays.

    I will say that I think we will have an easier time keeping the game close WITHOUT KG just because its pretty damn hard to stop the Heat offense so we might as well think offensively to “keep up” with them.

    I say its going to OT and itll be a close one like last time.

    • LA Flake

      Well, the most ideal situation would be to have KG in the lineup and start JG at the 4 with Bass coming off the bench. But we don’t do that and I have no idea why.

  • Mike C

    Predicting a win or loss against the Heat is easier than you think. As usual, it all depends on the three idiots in the striped shirts. If they send LeBron & Wade to the foul line 20 times apiece like they usually do, than the Celtics lose. If by some miracle they actually let the players play and dont disrupt the Celtics runs with homecourt advantage, than we win. Now I need to go prepare myself mentally to withstand the 48 minutes of ass kissing I’ll have to endure by ESPN commentators about how amazing (NOT) Bron Bron and the Heat are. Hopefully I wont Puke.

  • JB

    “Game time decision” just a decoy for the Heat as to what the celtics starting roster will really be. Heat win this one unfortunately.

  • Lee in Oregon

    Heat streak ends tonite, with or without KG.

  • Mannie

    Hopefully JG dunks on bosh again.

  • ZabJudah

    She’s a brick—-house
    Mighty mighty, just lettin’ it all hang out

  • eriksuperman

    I thought Boston was going to pull this off last night, and
    for 45 minutes or so they had done everything in their power to stop the Heat
    machine. I can’t believe how Lebron turned it on at the end, but you have
    to give him credit for carrying his team when it mattered most. I saw the
    second half on my iPad after my shift at DISH ended, and as we watched on the
    bus ride home we were sittin’ on the edge of our seats. I have the DISH
    Anywhere app, and can take all my live TV and DVR with me wherever I go, and
    while it was really cool being able to watch as we rode, it was a huge
    disappointment for the Boston fans sitting next to me.