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Red's Army

The definitive guide to every Celtics starter’s trade value

RedsArmyAdmin February 29, 2012 Uncategorized 15 Comments

The next 16 days or so are going to bring a cacophony of trade rumors that will slowly bore a hole into my brain, rendering me a complete vegetable by the time it's over.  And I know that everyone wants to hop on the trade machine and throw "this works!" trades out there that make little to no sense.  So I decided to put a little guide together for every Celtics starter's trade value so you can understand what we can realistically expect in any potential trade scenario.  Here's a meter with pretty colors…

Trade meter

  • No Thanks = Sorry, Danny Ainge, I have no interest in this player
  • We're Listening = Ok Danny, I wasn't going to go after this guy, but let's see what you want in return
  • Here's Our Offer = Hey Danny, I'm interested in getting this guy from you, let's see if we can find a deal
  • GOTTA HAVE HIM! = Just about everyone on the roster is available, let's figure out what we can get for this guy.

With that in mind, here's where I believe our starters' value realistically stands.

Trade meter here is our offerRajon Rondo

Why there?  Because the knocks on Rondo are what they are.  And with reports that he may or may not have worn out his welcome in Boston, Rajon isn't in the "gotta have him" category.  Those reports only make teams want to low-ball the Celtics in hopes of taking advantage of a frustrated Ainge and getting Rondo on the cheap  Rondo exists in this weird place trade-wise.  He makes $11 million this year and he's made three-straight All Star games, so the market dictates that the's worth more.  How much more?  There's the rub.

Rondo's ceiling is perennial All Star, franchise point guard, walking triple double machine.  Rondo's floor is moody malcontent that will gamble to pad stats and go off on point-proving tangents.  Because of the ceiling, Danny Ainge will ask for ceiling-worthy return.  Because of the floor, teams may try to look elsewhere for better options.   

Personal opinions aside, Rondo is a trade asset, but not of  the Chris Paul "I gotta have him" variety.  That will more likely than not keep Rondo here so he can either (a) realize his full potential or (b) regain enough trade value that someone bites on him in the offseason or beyond.

Trade meter here is our offerRay Allen

Why there?  Because he's still a great shooter, the ultimate professional, and his $10 million contract is not only palatable in price, it ends after this season.

But temper your expectations on a Ray Allen trade.  He's probably the most attractive player on the roster for a reason beyond that first sentence.  He's attractive because other GM's think they can get him without giving up TOO much.  And he's only attractive to contenders who need one more piece to the puzzle. 

So what can you expect IF Ray is traded?  Even IF you get a 1st round pick, it'll be at the end of the draft because a great team would want him.  And would you really want Mo Williams in return for Ray?  Because that's the type of player you're looking at.  

Trade meter were listeningPaul Pierce

Why there?  Because Paul Pierce hasn't looked particularly great lately, but he can still create his own shot and hit clutch jumpers.  However, he's owed $32 million over the next two years, which means you'd have to give up a lot to get him.  

It's possible a bad team might look to Pierce as a veteran leader to help the young guys progress.  So those teams will probably listen to Danny Ainge if he were to call.  But Danny would have to be willing to take a bad contract in return.  Now you're looking at Paul Pierce to Charlotte for Corey Maggette, filler, and a pick (that's not a rumor or a deal I advocate… just an example of what I think is the best offer Danny could get for Pierce.)  And that pick isn't necessarily for this year's draft.  Or you might have to get a third team involved… and that's just a mess. 

Trade meter were listeningJermaine O'Neal

Why there? Because he makes $6.2 million in a deal that expires this year.  That's it.  That's the only reason to listen to an offer that includes Jermaine O'Neal.  He can be used as filler with someone else (you keep hearing him tagged to Rajon Rondo rumors) for a tax paying team desperate to shed some salary for next season.  There are no straight-up deals for Jermaine out there.  

Trade meter - no thanksKevin Garnett

Why there?  Because he makes $21 million this year and there's no way you can properly match salaries and get the right value for KG. And don't get pipe dreams of a team trying do ditch a big-salary guy in an effort to go after Dwight Howard.  New York is not going to jettison Carmelo Anthony to clear salary for Dwight (and yes, I've had that pitched to me before).  

These values are lower than some of you might expect them to be.  I'm sorry about that.  But these, I believe, are a more accurate reflection of where the Celtics stand in the overall scheme of NBA trade value.  There are rules for trading players that involve the matching of salaries.  Before making any proposals in the comments, go here and read those rules.  

And remember this:  picks don't count as trade value.  You can't trade Ray Allen for a $6 million player and a #1 pick and say "hey, a lottery pick will make about $2 or $3 million so that should count."  It doesn't. 

So if you wonder why I, and many others, downplay the "blow it up" mentality… it's because of all this.  The Celtics can get rid of all of their starters if they want, but they'd be stuck with sub-par players, bloated salaries, or almost worthless picks.  With guys like Allen, Garnett, O'Neal and others coming off the books next season, it's more prudent to wait things out and see what the offseason brings. 

Just because the trade deadline is March 15, it doesn't mean teams are required to make deal on or before then.  The Celtics may just be better off waiting for free agency to play out… see who they can get… and then try the trade route after teams miss out on targets and get desperate to make another move. 

Trades out of frustration are usually bad moves.  Sometimes you have to just sit and wait… maybe longer than you'd like… for the right opportunity to strike.

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  • Nick

    If anyone on this team goes its gotta be either Ray or Rondo… Pierce makes contractual sense… but he still has a lot left despite what certain clowns want to make U think. He’s the guy who despite him having a down year, can still go get his own shot… and isn’t afraid to do so. I say the best move is to trade Ray to get more athletic… then KG walks after season… U throw huge dollars at Hibbert..s o going forward u have rondo, jeff green, hibbert, pierce, JJJ, Avery, 2 first rounders (maybe 3 if you can finagle 1 for ray) and then throw ur other big contract that we’ll have at Nick Batum. Thats a realistic way to rebuild this thing. We aren’t getting Dwight or Deron Williams, gimme Hibbert and his post game over Dwight any day of the week. Batum is a future all-star that gives us 6 or 7 solid young pieces to go with pierce

  • Scott

    I agree with you 100%.Our team is still very talented, even though we are not playing that well. There are alot of better ways to get the Celtics to win games,and that is to rebound,rebound,rebound.

  • chachee

    Danny will not make the same mistake this year, that he made last year with Perk. It really makes no sense for the Celtics to make a trade. There’s no trade that will put them ahead of the Heat or the Bulls this year. One might pray that either the Heat lose Wade or LeBron to injury OR the Bulls lose Rose for the playoffs. If Danny were smart, he would keep the roster intact, let Ray and KG become free agents, and attempt to make a run at dwight howard. If it doesn’t work out, so be it. If he’s forced to trade Rondo, do so in the offseason. His value would be higher when the season’s over than it is right now. If we were in the top 3-4 in the conference, then i can see the urgency to find that missing piece. It’s foolish to overreact and make a move when the franchise is in place to start rebuilding for the future. This was inevitable when the Big 3 came together. Why panic and prolong the rebuilding period, by trading away expiring contracts for sub-par veterans?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mannoperry Perry Manno

    PROPOSAL #1
    Out RR + Bass + Filler
    In Gasol
    Out JO + Cox
    In Odom (UNR)
    Out Dooling + Moore + #1 (Clips)
    In Augustin (RA) or Sessions (P/O)
    Playoff Rotation
    Gasol
    Garnett/Odom/JJ
    Pierce
    Ray/Pietrus
    Augustin/Bradley
    Off Season Cap Room … approx $44m with cap holds + our #1 2012
    PROPOSAL #2
    Out Ray
    In Darko + Beasley (RA) + #1 (2012)
    Playoff Rotation
    Darko/JO
    Garnett/Bass/Cox
    Pierce/Beasley
    Pietrus
    RR/Bradley
    Off Season Cap Room … approx $40m with cap holds + 3 #1′s (excluding Bass)
    PROPOSAL #3
    Out RR+JO+Cox
    In D. Harris + A. Jefferson + #1 (2012) or Burks
    Playoff Rotation
    AJ
    Garnett/Bass/JJ
    Pierce
    Ray/Pietrus
    Harris/Bradley
    Off Season Cap Room … approx $43m with cap holds + 3 #1′s (excluding Bass)
    PROPOSAL #4
    Out Ray
    In Psycho T + Hill (RA) + #1
    Playoff Rotation
    JO/Cox
    Garnett/Bass/Psycho T
    Pierce
    Pietrus/Hill
    RR/Bradley
    Off Season Cap Room … approx $36m with cap holds + 3 #1′s (excluding Bass)

  • http://profile.typepad.com/trsjr91 BleedGreen34

    rajon rondo jermian jajuan averybradley our two first round pikcs for dwight make it happen danny even if its just for a rental for the rest of the season

  • KY Celts fan

    Whose Cox?

  • KY Celts fan

    Oh, Wilcox. Never mind.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/andreas24x7 Andreas24x7

    Im amused but your rating on rondo..doubtful anyone wants a cranky injury prone pg with repeated lack lusted performances vs other guards who are supposed to be out of the top 5 that he is in..like..Kyrie Irving..who roasted him last night..but hey..poke steals work!

  • Danno

    Rondo & JO to LA for Gasol
    Sign Odom after Buyout.
    Dooling & Johnson to Cleveland for Sessions.
    sign Aaron Brooks after release from China
    Playoff Rotation:
    Gasol/Odom
    KG/Wilcox
    Pierce/Pietrus
    Ray/Sessions
    Brooks/Bradley
    CHAMPIONSHIP.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    Injury prone?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mannoperry Perry Manno

    Wilcox :)

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mannoperry Perry Manno

    Brooks would be a monster … not sure if China is holding him hostage as they appear to be with Chandler. Sessions is a quality back up, worst case he would suffice as the starting PG for this season … all good!

  • Jerry Sondler

    Ainge`s most likely plan is to let the season run it`s course without any significant player movement…with lots of money to spend, he`ll ask Howard what it would take to sign with Boston, inquire from him who to acquire in order to sign him, etc.
    Only if Howard were to say he will never play with Boston, then Danny moves on to Plan B.

  • TheDubz33

    Injuries to the upper body don’t mean shit. You are using injury prone in an irrelevant context. He has had a few bad breaks because of how hard he plays leading to miscellaneous upper body injuries.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mdsample greenbeand

    stored in a locked safe place both ray/kg better have resigned contracts @ vet/min.. that’s the closest route from 17-18