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Red's Army

The Decisions for Danny

Jnoble Celtics June 2, 2011 Uncategorized 18 Comments


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Editor's Note:  Please welcome Jacob Noble to the Red's Army crew.  Jacob has just joined the team.  Please enjoy the first of many great posts Jacob will write for us.

Being a lifetime Celtic fan makes these Finals hard to watch because what we saw during the regular season out of the Boston Celtics was not how they played in the second round against the Eastern Conference Finals champs. 

For my first post on Redsarmy, I wanted to give the readers an idea of how I would construct a team (the Celtics) and give you some of my thoughts and insight on this team.  Next season the Celtics will have $66,267,129 expensed in player contracts for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Jermaine O’Neal, Avery Bradley and will owe Rasheed Wallace half a million.

The Boston Celtics do not have too many decisions to make this upcoming season.  The players who are becoming free agents are Nenad Krstic, Glen Davis, Von Wafer, Delonte West, Troy Murphy, Sasha Pavlovic, Carlos Arroyo and Chris Johnson (not the football player).

Glen Davis is a starting point to show my analytical thinking.  I believe the Celtics will be outbid for his services, however if the CBA becomes a hard cap like the owners are pushing for then ignore this outbid comment.  Let us continue as though the current CBA will be in effect next year, I believe Glen can field anywhere from $6 to $10 million per season, if he didn’t play poorly in the playoffs I would lean more towards the $10. The Celtics need not to get into a bidding war and let the big guy play elsewhere.

Out of the other players who are free agents, I would offer modest deals to Von Wafer and Delonte West.  I could see Delonte West earning a 2 years – $6 million or more.  He might even lock down a Brian Scalabrine type deal of 5 years for $15 million.  Von Wafer being younger might field a longer deal with similar money, but if I had to choose one, I would go after West.

The next decision that needs to be made will be two players with Player Options.  One player already made his decision by retiring (Shaquille O'Neal), capping off an amazing career having played for two of the best franchises, Shaquille O’Neal will be leaving us.  His timing couldn’t have been worse, the fans all over adore this man and he is leaving us when we need him most.  These statements reflect his personality, not his physical ability, the league needs him around especially with what is brewing in South Beach.

Ray Allen will be the next player to make a decision.  Last year he signed a 2 year deal worth $20 million with a Player Option in the second year.   I am not going to try to figure out what the man is thinking but there are two thoughts I would have being him.  One would be that the pain they went through and only did worse.  Seeing that they peaked in the 2010 Finals.  The other way I would think is I am healthy, I had one of my most efficient seasons and at this rate, I could play until 40.  I don’t think he would play elsewhere do to Connecticut being his home and he doesn’t need to chase rings.

Now the entire roster has been dealt with, but wait, we have the hardest decision to make.   What to do with Jeff Green, as John put it.   Jeff Green is a restricted free agent, for those who aren’t sure what this means I will quickly break it down.  Basically being a restricted free agent gives the Celtics a “right of first refusal”, the way this happens is the Celtics must make a qualifying offer by June 30th to Jeff Green, allowing them to be able to offer a contract themselves as well as having their right to refuse first.    Jeff Green will then go around to the teams that are interested and they will offer deals in which Jeff Green will sign the Offer Sheet he likes best.  See the JJ Reddick situation last year with Chicago and Orlando for a good idea.  The Celtics will then have the option to match the offer sheet presented or refuse.   There is no compensation for not matching the offer sheet, however if the Celtics match, they cannot trade Jeff Green in a sign-and-trade. 

Well I can finally tell you my opinion on the player.  I think the Celtics have to bring him back.  If they don’t it will be their admittance that they traded Perkins for a half a season of Jeff Green.  Teams know the Celtics want to resign Green and if they covet him enough, they might make the Celtics overspend.  Determining his value is tough because of his potential and upside.  He is young and has solid numbers.  I honestly see teams offering $8-$10 per year for 3 to 4 years, in which the Celtics should match.  I don’t think we saw the real Jeff Green, can’t blame a young player for being thrown into a veteran championship group. 

This post went further than I ever expected, but I like it.  This is how I would handle the current roster to position the team for the Draft and Free Agent , later I will gladly talk about the moves the Celtics can make or should make.  Even if that means trading away one of the big three. Can't believe I went through this whole post without mentioning Danny Ainge or Doc Rivers.

*All salary numbers and clauses came from our friends over at ShamSports 

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  • http://profile.typepad.com/licktheglassitol Classless

    Chris Johnson doesn’t play for the Celtics, dude.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jacobnoble Jacob Noble

    They still had a salary obligation to him…

  • http://profile.typepad.com/twinguy33 Twinguy33

    Not too impressed with your first post. I think Big Baby is worth 3-5 million a year at most. your 6-10 million is a little overblown. Also, we do not own the free agent rights to chris johnson. he played with the trailblazers after us. I will forgive you and hope for better posts in the future.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/arthurm arthur great

    It remains to be seen if the Celtics need West & Green, but this article definitely needs Strunk & White.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/scottpriest Scott Priest

    Just because you think he’s only worth 3-5 (and I agree with you) it doesn’t mean that’s what he’ll get. There are tons of free agents who have gotten more than they’re worth over the years, especially ones who end up on the MLE and don’t deserve it (Radmanovic, Posey, Croshere, Jermaine O’Neal, Mike Miller all come quickly to mind). Big Baby won’t get up to 10 I’m sure, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him get twice as much in years and $ than he’s really worth.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/twinguy33 Twinguy33

    i agree…..whoever wants to pay him more than 5-6 million is not doing a good job as a GM. i was commenting on the post that he will get 6-10 million. Big baby thought he deserved paul milsap money two years ago and we got him for 3 million. it will be close to the same this year. only someone really hurting for a power foward and desperate will pay him more than 5 mil per year.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jacobnoble Jacob Noble

    Just going from the Roster last year, regardless Chris Johnson is a free agent and no one owns his rights.
    As for Baby, I agree which is why i said the Celtics will be outbid for him and they shouldn’t chase. As for your numbers, Baby is more comparable to guys like: Drew Gooden (signed for $6.4 per year)and Tyrus Thomas ($40 mil over 5 years)(both score around 11 pts per game and 6 rebonds, similar to Baby)
    Lastly, Although we all have beliefs on salary numbers, the fact is their value is what teams will pay. And Teams will pay Baby a 20-30 Million for 4/5 years.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/scottpriest Scott Priest

    Right…I was just saying I don’t think Jacob is saying BBD deserves that 6-10 figure, merely that some GM might panic and give it to him. History tells us this is entirely possible.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jacobnoble Jacob Noble

    I had to google Strunk & White…

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jacobnoble Jacob Noble

    exactly scott, i said let him walk… as for his last contract, there were HUGE maturity issues at that time with Baby which hurt his negotiations. This year, it will be playoff performance that will hurt.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/twinguy33 Twinguy33

    ok….your reasoning sounds good, just hope Danny does not pay more than 4-5 million a year for him. let him go if another team is willing to pay more than that. Hoping Baby leaves :)

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mattwilding Matt Wilding

    Arthur-I thought the SAME THING.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p0115704263ce970b Papa Irish

    Welcome aboard!
    First off go look at the teams that have 6 to 10 million to spend in free agency, and there is only a handful of them, then tell me which of those GM’s is brave enough to try to sell Glen Davis as worthy of that type of investment, after, wait for it, owners are trying to cut player total player salaries by 1/2. Then add it the fact that Glen is a undersized power forward, which are a dime a dozen in the nba, and that he is a certified headcase, there is no way big baby makes more than 6 million.
    Guys typically get overpaid when they are restricted free agents and teams HAVE to overpay so that the team that has there rights won’t match. Market value for glen is around 5 million, and if a team tries to pry Glen away it will most likely be by using their MLE and offering a starting job, which glen seems to covet.
    I also have an issue with your D West statement. We can give him up to 120% of the minimum salary next year, or around $1.42 million, I believe.
    We could also sign him with the bi-annual exception (around $2 million+ per season) Other than that we have to use our MLE on him. So giving him 6 million a year would be out of the question, and while it would be a blow to lose him, we can hardly afford anything north of 3mil to keep him, we just have too many other holes.
    Ultimately i think that Delonte’s injury history and the fact that he is a nut job will be our saving grace and he’ll end up getting only in the range of 1.42 to 2 mil from us.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jacobnoble Jacob Noble

    Great points, but you are forgetting teams don’t have to use the entire MLE on one player, it can be broken out. I do agree he returns for us and his history will allow it to be a discount than what his abilities are worth.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mannoperry Perry Manno

    In order to address the roster it makes sense to first underscore the deficiencies …
    1- Lack of a scorer who can ISO, space the floor and create his own shot.
    2- A durable center … if Kristic is not signed or traded (S/T).
    3- Rebounding!
    4- More perimeter defense to match Miami’s weaponry.
    Skewing younger while staying in contention is a blueprint management seems ready to embrace. After all, how long can you commit to veterans on the back nine of their careers?
    There’s no question Davis at $10m is overvalued, but he is a valuable trading chip or could very well resign in Boston.
    Kristic is a guy you wouldn’t mind see coming back either. The Celts own his BR so they won’t overpay, but there’s CSKA Moscow to consider.
    Unless another team is having superstar fire sale it’s hard to imagine the Core 4 not starting the season in green uniforms. RA already hinted at picking up his option. Jeff Green will be tendered at least the $5.9m q/o. Green is a big part of their plans moving forward and it’s not far fetched to say they want him around for at least another year to validate the trade.
    You don’t need to spend the LLE on Delonte. He’ll have few suitors off an injury plagued season, and for his own mental state there’s every reason to beleive he will stay on for another year and accept the veteran raise.
    So there may be a chance that next season’s team could look a lot like the one that finished in May. Or things could trend a bit more exotic, which many of us see happening.
    Let’s paint a mosaic of options:
    Davis for Landry (S/T) or … Davis + Gody/Erden TPE ($950k) for OJ Mayo. Grizz will pick up Young’s option. With Gay back and TA they have enough on the perimeter. That would give them a front line rotation of Gasol, ZeBo, Davis, Arthur … pretty solid.
    If Davis is dealt it may make sense to go after Chuck Hayes (LLE) who does all the good things BB does when his head is on straight. Only the Rockets will overpay because CH is not an MLE player just yet.
    2011 #1 + $2m cash for Ilyasova (400k is guaranteed for 2011-12, but if waived or traded Bucks save $2m for a total cap relief of $4m with this proposed deal). This kid is Danny’s kind of big man. Hard nosed and a good mid range shooter.
    Kristic & Quis TPE for Oden ( Kristic gives Portland a durable center behind Camby, and a little more cap flexibility with the Quis TPE). I don’t advocate signing Oden to a long term, bloated contract. But $6m/ for 2 years is worth the risk.
    JR Smith would provide more scoring in ISO and off the dribble. Totally expendable from the Nuggets perspective, and exactly the offensive creator we need. A two year MLE would allow him to up his market value playing with a more disciplined team.
    All incoming contracts are no more than 2 years …
    JO/Hayes/Oden
    KG/Ilyasova
    PP/JG/Mayo
    RA/JR SMITH
    RR/D.WEST/AB

  • http://profile.typepad.com/chadlaurent Chadlaurent

    I like your casual writing style, but please learn the difference between “than” and “then”. I stopped reading after the second time one of the words was used incorrectly.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/trsjr91 BleedGreen34

    trade rondo for monta ellis and a first round pick or for a scorer and a reliable big man. resign jeff green , do not resign baby. resign delonte and make him the starting point guard and bring avery bradley as a back up. all other needs address in free agency and we’ll be set

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p0115704263ce970b Papa Irish

    NO I realize we can split the MLE, that didn’t have any bearing on my point about west. Let me clarify, If we spend 3mil of our MLE on Delonte than we are handcuffing ourselves of our only chip in free agency. I love Delonte and I for sure want him back on this team, but if he wants more than 3mil, that leaves us with only 2mil of our mle left, what kind of quality big do you know that will sign for 2 mil?