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The talk of years of Heat domination is a little premature

RedsArmyAdmin May 28, 2011 Uncategorized 2 Comments

Ira Winderman lays out a scenario today where he looks at all the competition in the East and basically decrees the Heat will dominate the conference for years to come… basically cementing a spot in NBA Finals after NBA Finals.

 the mix of this Heat core and this East competition, as it currently stands, potentially could yield sustained conference domination.

While Derrick Rose faded, it was not under the limitations of his own skills in the conference finals, but rather he wilted mostly because there was no one to turn to. Carlos Boozer proved to be more of a Plan Z than Plan B for supposed Co-Executive of the Year Gar Forman. And for a player the Bulls wouldn't move forCarmelo AnthonyJoakim Noah sure did a lot of sitting in fourth quarters (next to Boozer).

Then there are the Celtics, who are holding on to the hope of making "one more run." From this vantage, we know "one more run" merely means watching Antoine Walker and Gary Payton grow even older. That never is a plan with legs.

It goes on for a little while, but it's a logic that is inherently flawed… and the reason for its flaw are in the first quoted sentence. 

"as it currently stands"

The Miami Heat have two amazingly great players in LeBron and Wade and a pretty good player in Bosh.  That core is undeniably great.  It will be good enough to probably earn the Heat a spot in the top 2 or 3 seeds in the East. 

But…

We never know how these things are going to work out.  We never know if there will be discord after a couple of years.  We don't know if the new CBA will force the Heat to break up under the pressure of a hard salary cap.  We don't know if the Bulls, Celtics, Knicks or any other team in the mix will make a trade, draft a player, or sign a free agent that will dramatically change the landscape of the conference.  We don't know what the next month will bring… much less the next few years. 

The thing is… nothing ever continues "as it currently stands" in the NBA (except, maybe, with the TWolves and Clippers).  Every roster undergoes changes.  Players get hurt.  Coaches get fired.  Guys come out of nowhere to have career years.  Owners decide to cut costs and have fire sales where great players suddenly become available. 

The only thing we know about the NBA is that we don't really know what will happen next in the NBA.  Hell, 2 months ago the Heat were a disjointed team that couldn't close out games or beat a good team.  Now suddenly they're an unstoppable juggernaut?  

It's premature to start predicting a decade of dominance.  It's possible.  But it's also possible that the wheels could come off in two years… especially if they lose in the Finals and fingers start getting pointed.  You never know.  

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  • http://profile.typepad.com/jrutkowski34 Jared

    Im kind of surprised noone has brought it up, but does anyone else think Harrison Barnes would be a fantastic replacement for The Captain when he takes his bow? I get to see a lot of this kid now that I live in NC and he reminds me a lot of Paul in some ways. He’ll most likely be available after this next season. I wonder if theres any way we could put a package together to entice someone to move that pick. Unfortunately, its def. gonna be a top 3.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p011571d4119a970b Lex

    As long as the Ls don’t win it again . . . I’m coo