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Your Morning Dump… More ignorant analysis of the Celtics

Chuck - Red's Army April 27, 2011 Uncategorized 19 Comments

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Despite an opening sweep, Boston is still vulnerable

With the only sweep of the first round, Boston made a statement against New York, but this season's Celtics still seem poorly equipped to make a deep playoff run. Beyond lacking a strong center and playing slowly, as we discussed previously, the Celtics had the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the league this year. Historically, that would mark them as possible playoff underperformers.

Admittedly, the C's managed to buck these same trends in 2010, but unlike Kevin Garnett did last year, neither Shaquille O'Neal nor Jermaine O'Neal seems likely to step up. Instead, the Celtics made it through the first round with 47 percent 3-point shooting, far above their regular-season average (and possibly a product of the Knicks' poor defense). Ray Allen showed in last year's NBA Finals that one good stretch of shooting doesn't necessarily carry over to the next game or series. In fact, previous trends suggest Boston could play more than two points worse than expected, meaning that it might take another stroke of luck from deep to get past the Miami Heat in Round 2 (assuming LeBron James & Co. advance past the Philadelphia 76ers).

ESPN Insider – Boston faces new hurdles

This pile of mis-information is brought to you by the world renowned Austin Link. Another guy who apparently analyzes basketball by reading box scores, not by watching games.

The offensive rebounding… why does this stat ONLY apply to the Celtics. Miami ranked 26th in offensive rebounding this year. Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, San Antonio, New Orleans and New York – all playoff teams – also ranked in the bottom third. And is it coincidence that the best shooting teams fall at the bottom of the offensive rebounding list?

As for Jermaine O'Neal not stepping up, did Mr. Link WATCH the Knicks series?

I thought playoff analysis in the NBA centered around match-ups. Isn't that the key to any series? As thin as Boston is at center, they are still more physical than Miami. And my final question to Mr. Link – what do your numbers say about Rajon Rondo?

(h/t to Brian P. for forwarding link)

On Page 2, Nads is confused about his role.

Krstic has slipped so far off coach Doc Rivers’ radar, he has strictly become a first-half player. His immediate playoff future is a crapshoot, especially if Shaquille O’Neal returns.

He’s a little confused.

“Not really,” Krstic said of understanding his role. “I play three minutes and sit down. You start to get going. I don’t need to score, just do something to try and help the team. But it’s hard.”

“When I get four or five minutes or whatever, I just go out and play hard,” he said. “Get rebounds, set a good screen. But I don’t have a role offensively, like going in the post or pick-and-pop. I’m more defensively oriented.

“It’s changed,” said Krstic. “I’m on a championship team for the first time in my career. The first unit knows how to get to the Finals and how to play, and we’re still learning. I’m doing whatever coach says.”

Herald – Krstic, Green adjust to roles

We knew Doc Rivers was going to shorten his rotation in the playoffs and it appears Nads is a casualty.

Like the rest of the bench, he did play better in Game 4. But I long for his first days in green, when he was tearing up the offensive boards and raining jumpers.

Related link: CSNNE – Celtics newcomers buy into mentality | ESPN Boston – Jeff Green hasn't found his way yet

The rest of the links:

Globe – So far, so good for Celtics | No one ever talks about defense | WEEI – Playoff picture in a snapshot | South Coast – Celtics ready for prime time | Enterprise – Rondo figures to be key vs Miami |

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  • http://profile.typepad.com/campbellpaul Paul Campbell

    Krstic has to realize where he is on the depth chart sorry. It could be worse Nad; you could be Von Wafer. I don’t expect him to play at all if/when Shaq gets back.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/paulmkane2001 Paulmkane2001

    Link’s article is terrible, but not as terrible as your response to it. As usual, you don’t care about anything real, just about hyping, as is typical for journo-hacks, especially for those of the internet variety. Of course, Link is correct that hot three-point shooting tends to come and go. Of course, Link is also right that JO is an iffy prospect for the finals, though he does look good for the Heat series. Of course, all the playoff teams you cite for having low offensive rebounding numbers have been struggling, except for the Heat, a team which you yourself acknowledge is known for not having a lot of inside strength. Of course, it’s true that rebounding has been a Celtics weakness for a long time now, and probably cost us a championship last year, and is looking like perhaps our weakest aspect this year.
    Lemming Celtic fans, led by their shilling media hacks, would have us believe, just because we swept the Knicks just now, that we closed out the season like a POWERHOUSE. They’ve already forgotten, helped by the likes of you, that we looked like crap after the Perkins trade. Everyone clutches the ‘they just turn the switch’ theory of basketball excellence like teddy bears; we’ve convinced ourselves that it really is that simple.
    In reality world, the Celtics face a very tall hurdle if they play The Heat, and they cannot be considered favorites in that series. Winning a championship this year will be a tall and long journey, if it happens. Celtics fans and writers need to cut out the arrogance.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p015431fa5a1e970c Shawna

    I love how that Link guy still says that LA should be considered the favorites even though they’ve lost 2 games to the Hornets. And the Lakers looked at least as bad as the Celtics heading into the playoffs (5 game losing streak anyone?) If the Celtics had lost 2 games in the first round, they’d already be writing the season’s obituary…oh wait, they ARE already writing the obituary. And we swept. Go figure. We can only hope it pisses them off as much as it pisses us off and they let their play do the talking for them.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    Explain why we shouldn’t be favored in this series then.
    If you’re calling us out for not providing intelligent analysis… then why don’t you provide some yourself?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mannoperry Perry Manno

    Addressing Mr. Link’s obtuse analysis in cronologial order …
    Unlike the Magic, Knicks, and Spurs (1,2, 7 respectively), the Celtics ranked 28th in 3pt. FGA this season. Ergo, you live by the 3 you die by it. NY is history, and both the Spurs and Magic are teetering on the brink. No one expects them to shoot 47% from the 3 point line throughout the playoffs, but they finished 7th in adjusted three point percentage meaning they’re not only judicious from the arc, but convert on their attempts more than they miss. … btw, they finished #1 in FGM.
    Additionally the Celtic starters rank #1 in defensive efficiency (92 pts/game), and 2nd in overall efficiency for starting units playing over 40 minutes in the playoffs. JO was a big reason for the success …
    1- Celts scored 118.1 pts per 100 poss. w/ JO on the floor. That line up registered the highest on-court offensive efficiency against NY.
    2- The Celts starting 5 have the second highest efficiency rating (over 40 minutes played) in the playoffs.
    2- NY averaged a -23 with JO on the floor.
    3- NY shot a paltry 43% in the restricted area with JO on the floor.
    43% at the rim is a Perk like number, so lets look at a side by side compassion. In 4 games …
    JO: 23 min/ game, 5.5pts/4r/2.5 blks.
    Perk: 24.8 min/ game, 4pts/6r/.75blks.
    Will it take a stroke of luck to get past Miami? Considering the Sixers have been close in two of its three losses, and their starters have outscored Miami’s (108-81), why would Boston be considered underdogs? After all, they did capture the season series 3-1, right?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/chanelfigueredo NineSevenEight

    Pssstttt! ^^^ ToTheRuins 2.0 …Just sayin’
    Despite being 11-1 against the Knicks and Miami this season/postseason, I’m glad everyone’s picking against the Celtics. I mean, the Heat beat the Celtics once in Miami. What more proof do we need? It’s us who are the arrogant ones for believing that our team is capable of winning.
    KG said it best: We “don’t care about numbers, [we] care about letters.”

  • http://profile.typepad.com/the_bantam the_bantam

    ‘Winning a championship will be a tall and long journey.’
    That isn’t in-depth enough?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/the_bantam the_bantam

    BTW, totally unrelated but Kobe’s poster dunk last night was sick.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/alexcosta Alex Costa

    This has got to be ToTheRuins.
    Another person who talks crap about the blog’s style, even though the bloggers who write these articles provide enough analysis and statistics to back up what they are saying. This guy obviously doesn’t see that and goes on to say we are obviously wearing green tinted glasses all the time.
    I don’t see you providing ANY analysis yourself (even though you criticize Red’s Army for not providing any – even though they do). All you are doing is secretly trolling us by being a douche. You can either share your thoughts in an appropriate and respectful manner or get the fuck out with your shitty attitude.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/alexcosta Alex Costa

    It’s unbelieveable how shitty these writers are nowadays on sports websites. It seems like none of them are watching any of the games and just look at box scores. And they seem to always support a team that has super star sweethearts like Kobe or Lebron in the team.
    Whatever though, the Celtics strive being the underdogs (can’t say the same for the Spurs though – the most overrated #1 team [for most of the regular season] in NBA History).

  • http://profile.typepad.com/alexcosta Alex Costa

    People like Mr. Link and Paul Kane (some idiot commenter who posts in this blog) doesn’t realize that. Either they don’t watch any of the games or they don’t even look at the actual statistics themselves.
    Either they are fanboys for another team that HATES the Celtics or their sport IQs are below average.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/alexcosta Alex Costa

    I agree. Holy hell.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f2d28d7970c BigMck

    You must be new around here. Because I’m the one leading the charge when it comes to expressing concerns about this team.
    What I don’t like… is the media overstating the Celtics short-comings, while overlooking the short-comings of other teams (i.e. the Bulls, Lakers, Heat, etc).

  • http://profile.typepad.com/licktheglassitol Classless

    Blab blah stats…nobody has told me who is covering Rondo in this series on Miami. Miami might as well bench Bibby and Chalmers. Also, nobody has brought up the fact that Wade has sucked badly vs. Boston in the last 9 games. He also can’t stand covering Allen (because running around screens is apparently above his pay grade).

  • http://profile.typepad.com/the_bantam the_bantam

    Aside from Rondo, the C’s players stories have been told for 10 years. Think of how much collective ink has been dedicated to KG, Ray, Paul, and The-Player-Formerly-Seen-as-Shaq, & JO. And with all their past, ‘They share the ball and play defense’ isn’t a hot story line. Just a shame they frame it as ‘analysis’.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jnel6 titletown

    Ok dude, you have some good points and I can understand that you just don’t like the hype of the Celtics. Wait? Has anyone seen hype around the Celtics lately? Not me.
    How can you grade the trade accurately until Shaq (or at least J O) are playing and back with the Celts. You can’t! You can grade it with how they have played with out their full roster or the guys they have had but it is not going to give you a full report of how the trade went until the players Ainge thought could do as good or better for a title run actually get to play. Shaq and J O have to be playing with some degree of health to see what the trade has done. If they were never to come back then I guess you have an accurate answer.
    Everywhere I look the Celtics are being shrugged off and told they can’t get by the Heat. Yet they went 3-1 against the heat during the season and the only loss to them was an end of season game where Perkins or Shaq were nowhere to be found. All three wins had Shaq or Perkins in them. J Oneal played in the last one but was still getting his health back and not wanting to hurt himself again. Now it’s playoff time and he is still getting more healthy and back into the flow. He will be even better as the playoffs go on. J Oneal is playing as good as Shaq and Perk did in those three wins. Even IF Shaq doesn’t play in the Heat series the Celtics should win in 6. If shaq plays it could be less. Doc and Co. were thinking of getting healthy, minutes, seeding/who they wanted to play in the first round more than anythiny else in the last game against the heat. Go look at the box scores.
    Take a look at the Bulls game as well. Celtics didn’t bring it at all for the Bulls and Heat games.
    It’s always nice to let your opponent think they can beat you and then pounce on them with a wake up call. Celtics play better in the underdog roll when everyone doubts them. Wether they do it on purpose or not, they just do it.
    It’s a game of the minds as well.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/jmeedu James Eisenman

    You can’t analyze basketball teams and matchups by statistics. That’s why most of the “experts” picked against the Celtics last season. Stats tell you about the past, not the present or the future. You look at players and matchups. And even then, you never know who may step up and surprise you. Here Rondo has to keep up the energy and make a few free throws. If he is careful on defense, he should be an x factor in this series. We’re deeper and Lebron and Bosh have yet to show me real heart in real adversity like the playoffs. The last Celtic game against Miami was all about their defensive intensity and Boston’s lack of it at that time. I don’t see that happening here. If everyone keeps playing at the level they did against the Knicks,I’m cautiously optimistic. As for Mr. Kane here, this guy is just a blow hard. All accusation and no understanding of basketball. He is one of those guys who disagrees just because you’ve said it and is almost always wrong about EVERYTHING I’ve seen him post here. No Mr. Kane, good offense does not create good defense, the Perkins trade was not the end of the universe and, sadly, that was not the Easter Bunny who left you that chocolate egg last Sunday.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01157053529f970b zippittyay

    “Ray Allen showed in last year’s NBA Finals that one good stretch of shooting doesn’t necessarily carry over to the next game or series.”
    It will if you don’t get a Ron Artest knee drilled into your thigh at high speed.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/antbar0100 Goceltics

    Are you related to Jhon Mcain?