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Rondo vs the Shot Clock

Jay February 9, 2011 Uncategorized 6 Comments

We've all seen it happen countless times.  The 24-second shot clock is about to go off, and Rajon Rondo buries one of those "NO NO DON'T SHOOT… YES NICE SHOT!" jump shots.  Without fail, the commentary comes as quick as Rondo's game in the open floor: 'He must lead the league in made jump-shots at the buzzer."  If it's on Twitter or being in the Garden, everyone says the same thing and it's pretty difficult to argue against that theory.

With that being said, if you were to guess the average amount of time remaining on the shot clock when he takes a jumper, what would you guess?  More often than not, it seems like Rondo only takes jump shots when he has no other choice.  He's the Celtics' floor general and he has the ball often, racking up assists and as he describes it "calling a good game."  Lately however, he's been taking more jumpers, trying to establish another weapon to fight against the "sagging" tactics created by Kobe Bryant and the LA Laker defense.  But how many of these jumpers come under duress?  Is he actively looking to shoot, or is it purely out of necessity?

After a tough last-second loss to the Dallas Mavericks last week, WEEI.com's Paul Flannery pointed out how Rondo is taking more mid-range jumpers (16-23 feet) and making more of them (45%) than any other season in his career.  While box scores and game logs do a fantastic job of logging the number of attempts and distances of shots, I was curious to see when he was taking them.  The results (with video) are after the jump.

 Admittedly, this is a rather small sample size to work with, but it is indicative of Rondo's recent tendency to take the jumper. 

  • In the past five games, he has taken a total of 22 jumpers (16-23 feet as well as threes) but only connected on 5 of them (23%). 
  • The average time remaining on the shot clock when he's taken the jump shot is 9.8 seconds.  Not as low as many would assume, but still under 10 seconds.  Some of these have come at the end of quarter situations.
  • 12 out of the 22 jumpers have been taken with 10 seconds or more, with 10 seconds being the lowest and 22 being the highest.  More often than not, these have come off of set plays, resulting from kick outs from teammates with his feet being set.  He has made 1 of these 12 jumpers, good for a meager 8.3%.
  • The remaining 10 out of 22 jumpers were taken with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock, either under duress, or in rhythym.  He made 4 of those 10 shots, skyrocketing his percentage from 8.3% to 40% (again, a small sample size but a little telling).

Statistics can be very helpful and assist in telling the story, but when you combine it with video to break down the scenarios in which the shots came from, then you can make a better judgment.  Below is the breakdown of each shot with a brief video compilation from Rondo's jump shots from the past five games.



@ LA Lakers
1 – 10s (miss baseline)
2 – 15s (make off a high screen, top of the key)
3 – 20s (miss, off a screen in transition)
4 – 13s (miss, left wing Kobe sagging off)

@ Sacramento

5 – 4s (make, left wing contested while dribbling, Kings defense was good here)
6 – 10s (miss, baseline off a feed from KG, passing out of a soft double-team)
7 – 8s (miss, top of the key off a Quis swing pass)

Vs. Dallas
8 – 15s (miss, top of the key off a soft KG double team kick out)
9 – 3s (make, high post step back over Kidd)
10 – 12s (miss, 2-3 arc play, Pierce kick out after attempted drive to the hoop)

Vs. Orlando
11 – 5s (miss, baseline feed from Ray in rhythm)
12 – 13s (miss, right wing wide open in rhythm from a Pierce pass)
13 – 12s (miss, right wing after Ray gets triple-teamed on a Floppy play)
14 – 2s (make, left wing, 2-3 arc play Pierce passing out of a triple-teamed drive)
15 – 3s (miss, straight away three, Magic defended Floppy well, had no better option)

@ Charlotte
16 – 22s (miss, baseline after KG offensive rebound, pass to Rondo, wide open)
17 – 4s (make, left elbow after pump fake, high screen from Davis)
18 – 2s (miss, right wing three, just dribbling out first quarter clock)
19 – 1.2s (miss, no shot clock, rushing up the court at halftime buzzer left wing)
20 – 6s (miss, left elbow step back after Bobcats defended the Floppy)
21 – 12s (miss, left wing after Pierce slash and kick)
22 – 14s (miss, final play of game baseline three after the play was designed for Ray who drove and kicked it out)

 

So maybe Rondo really only shouldshoot with the time expiring on the shot clock.  Although this could be evidence that he's much better off taking them when he doesn't need to think about it.  Either way it's an aspect of his game that is still developing, just like his free throw shooting (which he's made 17 of his last 20).  If he could get either of these to even a respectable level, he will be indefensible.

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  • JShuttlesworth

    I think the much more telling stat is whether he’s shooting a catch and shoot, or anything else.
    Looking at that video, Rondo is 0-12 shooting off the catch, and 5-10 shooting anything other than a catch and shoot, which is either off the dribble or from the tripple threat after a pump fake or jab step.
    Rondo is not a spot up shooter, and this video proves that he’s much better shooting off the dribble than in catch and shoot scenarios.

  • paul

    It just gets so tiresome.
    Write about what you see, what you understand, what you know. STOP WITH THE ENDLESS STATISTICS, VIDEO and all the rest of the crap designed to avoid any actual thinking and writing. Statistics and video are meant to be condiments, appetizers, even part of the entree, but never the whole damn meal. I’m sick and tired of writers force-feeding us statistics.
    Rondo needs to keep shooting, PERIOD. And he needs to keep driving. And he needs to play more aggressively in general, remembering that passing and moving without the ball are ALSO AGGRESSIVE. We may have to take lumps along the way, as Rondo develops, but we all can see that this is a guy with extraordinary potential, who needs to be more of a scoring threat to unlock all that potential. He will always be the catalyst more than the hero-baller, and that’s good. That’s part of what makes him so special, and part of what makes him, in some ways, the ultimate Celtic. But he does need to shoot more and score more and get to the line more, and we need him to keep working at it until he gets it.
    Keep crunching statistical rocks. Fine. The basics are simple.

  • paul

    Rondo’s game is all about movement, from his passing to his shooting.

  • Switch

    shuttlesworth is completely right
    If Rondo is to take a jumpshot, hopefully itll be off the dribble cause he cant catch and shoot for squat

  • http://profile.typepad.com/the_bantam the_bantam

    Why does Rondo ‘need’ to shoot and score more? If passing is what makes him so special?
    ‘invest in your strengths, manage your weaknesses’. Put adequate time in your jumper, but don’t focus on it. I’d rather see Rondo gun for the NBA assist record, and/or lead the league year in and out in steals and assists.
    Ray has spent years becoming the best shooter, imagine if he spent all that time trying to become a better passer or slasher because that was the part of his game that wasn’t amazing? Would he be standing at the top right now?

  • Vandell

    The Bantam is right. I also agree with Paul, but I enjoy the statistics, sometimes……..