On Ray and his turnovers | Red's Army - The Voice of Boston Celtics Fans
Red's Army

On Ray and his turnovers

Wade steal

This was going to be the lasting image from the Miami Heat game.  Ray Allen trying to make something happen… and Dwyane Wade ripping it… then going in for the apparent game-winning dunk.

Lucky for Ray, that thing happened … and everyone sort of moved on from the turnover.

But in that minute or so in between, I thought to myself "wow.. Ray is REALLY turning the ball over a lot this year."  So I decided to check it out… and it turns out perception is not really reality.

Checking out 82Games.com, we can see Ray's ball handling is actually a little better than it has been during his time in Green.  They have a formula called "hands rating" which takes into account offensive fouls, bad passes, ball handling turnovers, and other turnovers.  Right now, Ray's "hands rating" is 16.1.  Last year it as 13.9 and the year before that it was 14.3. 

By comparison, Rajon Rondo's hands rating is 32.9… so Ray's isn't entirely great.  But it's better than Paul Pierce's right now… 12.8.  Pierce's last year was 11.5. 

I'm not a nut for these advanced stats, but they're good to check on every once in a while when it feels like our eyes might be deceiving us. 

This year, it feels like Ray is getting stripped more than he has in the past… but that's not really the case.  Maybe they've come in some bigger spots this year, which magnifies them and make us REMEMBER them more than his turnovers in the past.  But the turnovers aren't really happening any more often than they have since his trade to Boston. 

Like this Article? Share it!

  • DRJ

    Interesting how 2 people can look at the same data page and walk away with opposite impressions. I just looked there for the same reasons, right before this post. What I saw was that Ray has the MOST passing TOs (30) on the team, except for Rondo. His ball-handling TOs are equal to Rondo’s — and considering the disparity in how often they handle the ball, that’s saying a lot. He’s had more “bad passes” than any other starter other than Rondo. I don’t know WHAT “hands rating” means (how do they calculate it?) so I have to ignore it.
    And then there’s the game-watching impression, which is that when Ray tries to dribble vs. resistance, a TO is more likely to happen than not. He is outright terrible at that… while being great at catch-and-drive.
    Dribbling vs. resistance and passing are his two (only) weaknesses, and the team would be best off minimizing Ray’s opportunities to display them.

  • StayGreen

    I can’t say how many times I have seen Ray (or Eddie) lead the fast break and then turn the ball over. They usually have a chance to give it to Rondo calling for the ball, but they don’t for some reason. It happens all the time and I don’t get it. Please, just give the ball to Rondo!

  • Mikey P

    The stats are deceiving because Ray does have a lot of turnovers and not only that, most of them are a “timing issue.” Meaning, he turns the ball over at crucial times of games and looks like he’s panicking. Ray loses the handle a lot off his knee also. I like Ray, but if the Celts could get equal value for him I wouldn’t mind seeing him go.