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Player Projections: Paul Pierce

Chuck - Red's Army September 8, 2009 Uncategorized 7 Comments

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Paul Pierce

Last year's stats:  37.5 mpg, 20.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.0 spg, 45.7% FG, 39.7% 3 FG, 83% FT

Projected Stats:

Chuck: 34.5 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 45.3% FG, 38.8% 3 FG, 82% FT

John: 33.0 mpg, 19.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 46.4% FG, 40.2% 3 FG, 85.2% FT

What will help him the most?

Chuck: The bench depth – specifically Marquis Daniels. The Truth turns 32 this fall and is coming off a season in which he played 37 minutes per game. With Pierce, reducing his time on the court will improve his productivity, and the acquisition of Daniels will help make that happen. Rasheed Wallace will also help reduce the offensive burden on Pierce when he's playing with the second unit.

John:  Gotta go with Chuck here.  There's a reason the Celtics focused so much on building such bench depth.  Paul Pierce has spent almost every minute of his career carrying the burden for this team.  He's finally going to grab a few extra minutes on the bench without worrying about shouldering the entire load.  He'll still get the clutch minutes, and he'll be better at that point because of the extra minutes.  Chuck and I agree on his totals… but we differ on his percentages.  I think he'll play less and produce more in his time on the floor.

What will hurt him the most?

Chuck: Pierce is a physical player. He loves to create contact. Granted, he's not getting to the line like in years past, but the pounding may catch up to him. Rather than see Pierce change his style, I'm hoping (praying) a reduction in minutes will lessen the trauma.

John:  Ugh… I'm agreeing with Chuck again?  Pierce is a bull out there.  There's no one better at taking contact and getting a decent shot up.  It's a huge part of his game.  But the more contact he takes, the higher the risk of something bad happening.  On the plus side, he's built to take that kind of abuse… and the reduced minutes will help.

Will he be an All Star?
 
Chuck: No. Statistically, I foresee Pierce taking a step backwards this year, at least in the regular season.

John:  Yes.  The Celtics will be one of the top 3 teams in the East.  Someone from Boston is going to have to represent the team.  It's possible Rondo gets the nod… but I still see Pierce hitting enough big shots to still be the obvious leader of this team.  Besides, this is the point of his career where reputation counts too… and Pierce's production, along with his standing in Celtics history, should be enough to at least get him on the squad.

Burning question:  How long before Paul Pierce loses his Superman cape?

Chuck:  I hate to say this, but Paul Pierce is past his prime. We saw glimpses of Superman in the 2009 playoffs (Game 5 vs Chicago), but I fear those performances are dwindling. Fortunately, this team has so much talent, we can win it all with Pierce playing Superman on a once a week basis.

John:  Clutch is clutch.  You don't just lose that.  The difference in Paul last year was there was no gas left in the tank.  As far as I'm concerned, the cape comes off when the sneakers come off.  As long as Doc can keep him rested, Pierce will have enough left to come through.  And remember this:  When Big Baby hit that game winner in Orlando, Pierce was the guy who made the pass.  He knows what to do with the ball in the clutch, and I don't think that's going away anytime soon.

Other Player Projections: Ray Allen | Rajon Rondo | Tony Allen | Brian Scalabrine

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  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p0115709edd57970b G4L

    Call me crazy but I think Pierce is going to be the first one out of the “Big 3″ to loose his high level of play. I think Ray will go for another 3 big production years and KG can be ok for another 3 yrs too.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f6a54c2970c ToTheRuins

    You definetly are crazy considering
    A.) KG has already dropped off statisically and got bit by a serious injury, fatigues quicker and you have to be the most careful with his minutes
    B.) Paul is the only one out of the 3 that can create his own shot, and score from anywhere on the court
    C.) Pauls Game isnt based on athletisicm
    D.) He’s the youngest
    I could go on and on.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f6a54c2970c ToTheRuins

    Im just wondering why people are quick to call Pierce “out of his prime” but have a hard time doing the same thing with KG, whos approching 40000 minutes for his career, coming off a knee injury in a season his statiscal prodction was down and he was primarily a jump shooter.
    Actually, I think I know why, and its because alot of people didnt actually pay attention to KG in his prime, therefore have no idea?
    If Pierce declines in anyway noticable this year = we have no chance.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p0115709edd57970b G4L

    I guess I’m crazy then, but I still think pierce will loose his HIGH LEVEL of PLAY the quickest… that doesn’t mean KG & Ray will not get statiscally worse but I think they’ll be at a higher playing level than Pierce in a few years.
    I think Ray can be a good jump shooter for a while, he can just come of screens for ever.
    KG is def getting old but he’ll still be able to play D like an animal & hit some jumpers & still have some low post moves..
    Like you said Pierce’s game isn’t based of athletisicm but its based on contact. I believe PP will struggle with that first step & his go to move is his up fake, I think he’ll be slower with less exposiveness(which is not much now) and more predictable because he wont be able to absorb the body contact as effectively.

  • jamalamalam

    Did you check that girls ass out?!?! Too busy doing that than reading your write up about PP.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f6a54c2970c ToTheRuins

    Well, everyones entitled to their own opinion, I just disagree.
    Pierce is younger, also with less mileage.
    He’s been playing closer to his prime then either KG or Ray the past 2 seasons.
    I think Ray Allen has 1 really good year left in him, then he will be a role playing spot up shooter(and maybe not here).
    KG, we have no idea if he has ANY great years left in him, nevermind 3 (and by the way, what post moves?) I’ll believe it when I see it.
    Pierce has shown signs of “slowing down” but we notice them more then Ray or KGs decline because we watched paul closely for 10 seasons. Hes already adjusted his game and is still a great player, better then Ray, and been more durable then KG the last 2 seasons (to say the least) and I see him being that at a high level for 3 more seasons at least, and better be the next 2 seasons, because hes due 39+million (for a reason)

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    There’s a reason we keep using that pic… and it’s not really because it’s of Paul Pierce.