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Red's Army

Breaking down everyone’s minutes

RedsArmyAdmin August 13, 2009 Uncategorized 23 Comments

Let's assume for a minute that this is the team we're going to war with in a couple of months.  It's possible that Danny might make another move, but even if he does, it will only affect one position.

This breakdown assumes a couple of things:

  1. A 9-man rotation… which I think is widely considered your optimum number.  If you've got 4 guys you can insert off the bench, you now have enough guys to give your starters proper rest, but not so many that guys wonder what their roles are.  This 9 man rotation pretty much lays out a very realistic expectation of how guys will be used, while allowing for flexibility.
  2. A "perfect world" scenario.  This assumes no injuries or early foul trouble.  We all know both can happen, and that's what the Brian Scalabrine's and Shelden Williams' of the world are there for.  They will hop in and take some of the minutes of whichever guy is hurt. 

So here's a look at how all the minutes break down position-by-position.
Minutes c
The center spot is very straightforward.  It's entirely Perk's domain.  There's no scenario in which he's playing any other position.  Wallace, will be his primary back up, getting most of his minutes at the 5.  In some scenarios, KG will be the 5 when a smaller guy (i.e. Glen Davis) is in the game.  For the purposes of this breakdown, When Wallace and KG are in the game together, KG is the power forward and Sheed is the center.
Minutes pf
The majority of KG's minutes will come at the 4, which is no surprise.  Wallace will be splitting time at the two big spots, while Glen Davis' primary minutes coming at the 4.

Minutes sf
Davis, as we discussed yesterday, will get a FEW minutes at the 3, but that's clearly Paul Pierce's domain, with Marquis Daniels giving him all of his relief. 
Minutes sg
Daniels can also give Ray a few extra minutes of bench time at the 2 spot.  The combination of House and Daniels will be enough to keep Ray right around 30 minutes per game.
Minutes pg
Daniels has been mentioned at the point, so I'm going to assume there will be at least a few minutes per game that he'll be the primary ball handler.  However, as you can see here, if the Celtics rely on House/Daniels to be their backup PG's, that will mean more minutes for Rajon Rondo.  I've slated his expectation at 35 minutes per game.  He averaged 33 minutes a game last season, and 41 minutes in the playoffs… so he can do it.  It's just not ideal.  Clearly, in looking at all these charts, there are minutes available at the point guard position.

This is how I see these guys being used.  We've got flexibility in the frontcourt.  We've got a couple of guys off the bench that can play multiple positions if need be.  That all means our aging stars can easily be limited to 30 minutes per game.  Our young point guard will have to shoulder a larger load with the current roster, but I think that when you look at it as cobbling something together for 13 minutes a game… it makes the current lack of a back up PG a little more tolerable. 

One thing to keep in mind, we're not looking at the Rondo of two seasons ago… which is the last time we had a makeshift back-up point.  This guy has now won a title, and carried a team in a playoff series.  He's older and smarter.  You can rely on him for 35 minutes a game… but you couldn't two years ago.  He averaged 29.9 mpg two seasons ago and he played some minutes he shouldn't have because of that lack of PG depth.  This version of Rondo can be pushed further than that one.  So while I'm all for bringing some more PG help, I don't think not bringing one in will be as detrimental as some others think.

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  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p0120a5467db7970c Sick_Wit_It

    Got a little bit of free time on your hands don’t you buddy?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    It’s not like pie charts take hours to make.

  • rvr

    hahahaha! i was thinking the exact same thing as i was reading it. no need to be defensive, i appreciate the in-depth look. it’s just clear that there isn’t a whole lot to report on right now.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f5d5d11970c Tim (FD)

    Ray and Paul will be closer to 35 minutes.
    You gave Daniels 26 minutes…. Take 5 of those away and give them to Pierce. Take 3 or 4 away from Eddie, give them to Ray.
    Other than that it looks good. But I’d also give 4 of Baby’s minutes to Sheed.

  • thetitleisours

    I think we will go with what we have right now. All the available PG’s out there are soft or have issues. Hate to say it but it seems like Pruitt would be the best backup at that spot if needed. Not as good a ball handler but plays a little more D, and in limited minutes you want the second unit to at least hold the line.
    If need be we can make a trade in the middle of the year.
    Fatigue played so much of a factor last year, that if Doc will limit the minutes in the early part of the year it will pay huge dividends (and limit injuries)
    I guess Hudson goes to Europe

  • thetitleisours

    This board is peppered with pie charts ;)

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    Ain’t that the truth. August is a tough month in the NBA

  • Keith P

    What if rondo gets hurt…. I think that is the main concern for not having a true backup PG.

  • thetitleisours

    I think that is going to wait until midseason. Probably a trade for someone will get a better fit than what is out there
    I assume nobody has picked up Pruitt yet, correct?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p0115704b7be5970b bigpartymaker

    You should fax this to Doc so he can study it now

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01157060540b970b Orb

    The lack of pg depth only bothers me as far as injury insurance. I know Danny likes talking about Daniels at point, but did he actually play that position in Indiana?
    I’d add a #3 assumption up top too, titled DOC ACTUALLY LIMITS THE BIG 3’S MINUTES. How many times did he say that he was going to do that exact thing last year, only to end up playing everyone to death so we’d keep the coveted 2 seed.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f5ebb21970c JD

    I hope Paul and Ray don’t have to play 35 mpg a game. 30mpg for each of them is ideal, and daniels was a starter last year, so theres nothing wrong with giving him big minutes.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    You might be right about Ray and Paul… but I’m HOPING they’re closer to 30 than 35. We don’t need them breaking down.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01156f5d5d11970c Tim (FD)

    Starter…. On Indiana. There’s a big difference between Indiana and Boston… anything between 20-25 is good for him.
    And 30 would be ideal… but not realistic. That’s why I said they “will be” near 35…. not “should be”

  • thetitleisours

    You guys are right. Can Doc be trusted to limit minutes?

  • thetitleisours

    That is why I play the computer version of Strat-O-Matic at this time. My summer fix until October
    http://www.somhoops.com/info/computer.htm
    Anyone else have a different summer fix?

  • thetitleisours

    P.S. on the summer fix thing. Powe’s championship card was phenomenal. Finally they came out with 1979-80 stats which they should have made years ago
    http://www.somhoops.com/info/computer.htm
    Anyone else doing any summer leagues or games?

  • http://profile.typepad.com/6p01157060540b970b Orb

    We need a pie-chart that show’s “DOC LIMITING MINUTES” I’d guess 32% yes and 68% no.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/redsarmy Red’s Army

    correct

  • Joe Somebody

    You really think Paul pierce is only getting 30mins a game? he’ll be at 33-35 same with Ray, and KG will be closer to 32 mins by the end of the season.
    This is how i see it. Of the 240 possible mins:
    Ray Allen-34
    Paul Pierce-34
    Kevin Garnett-31
    Rajon Rondo-33
    Kendrick Perkins-27
    Rasheed Wallace-28
    Glenn Davis-18
    Marquise Daniels-16
    Eddie House-15
    Other-4

  • Juan

    What happened to Tony Allen and Scalabrini? And what about the new guy Sheldon Williams. Are they just gonna play garbage time? Scalabrini can still contribute to the team, and Tony’s too good to just get garbage time. I don’t mind having Williams for garbage minutes. I like the pie charts, keep up the good work Redsarmy!

  • mainebleedsgreen

    It makes much more sense to break the minute down by position as Red’s Army did. In your break down here you have 12 mins/game that are unaccounted for at the 1,2,3 positions after subtracting those played by Rondo, House, Pierce, Ray, Daniels … whose taking those out of Perkins, Sheed, Davis, Garnett?? Even if you assume the “Other” is a backup to one of those positions that’s still 8 minutes a game. That’s almost 1/5 of a game that you would have to fit a PF/C into assumably the 3 spot to cover those minutes.
    Anyways I just think the idea of BB trying to play the 3 sounds ridiculous.
    Also Red’s says, “Wallace, will be his primary back up, getting most of his minutes at the 5. ” then gives Wallace more minutes at the 4 than he does at the 5. And he’s also giving BB minutes at SF??
    I think because of our Depth at PF/C Davis is going to find himself in a minutes cruch and won’t get as many as some may expect. And because of our lack of depth at the PG, SG spots I think Daniels and House are going to be looking at more minutes unless we bring someone else onboard.
    I see the minutes going like this.
    Center:
    Perkins 28 mpg
    Wallace 12 mpg
    Davis 6 mpg
    KG 2 mpg
    PF:
    KG 30 mpg
    Wallace 12 mpg
    Davis 6 mpg
    SF:
    Pierce 34 mpg
    Daniels 12 mpg
    SG:
    Allen 34 mpg
    House 8 mpg
    Daniels 6 mpg
    PG:
    Rondo 36 mpg
    House 8 mpg
    Daniels 3 mpg
    There’s more minutes at PF then C because all four of Perkins, KG, Wallce, and Davis will play C while only three of them (minus Perkins) will play PF. I agree KG will plays small situationally (end of quarter, press breaking unit, etc). So I gave him 2 minutes there, but he could not play center for multiple game stretches this season looking at the big man depth we have.
    Then you’ve got 5 players again, but they need to cover the pg, sg, sf positions, giving them an extra 48 minute a game to spread around these 5. Rondo, House, Allen, Daniels, Pierce. I think Rondo plays the most. And I think you see Pierce and Ray’s minutes slip per game, but only so slightly to around 34 minutes. I think if Daniels can learn the defense, and Doc can learn to trust him, then he plays big minutes behind Pierce, though he gets time at each of the position, even though we’ve got pretty good depth at the 3 with T.Allen, Giddens, Walker and Scalabrine all on the bench who can play that position. House could pick up those extra 2 minute at PG, but I think playing him there 10 mpg is a stretch as teams will/should pressure him every time he tries to take the ball up court. Though as we saw extensively last year house isn’t the primary ball handler even when he’s guarding the other teams PG alot of the times so his minutes at PG might be even shorter then the 8 mpg I gave him.
    Here’s my 9 man rotation in total mintues.
    Total Minutes
    Perkins: 28
    KG: 32
    Wallace: 24
    Davis: 12
    Pierce: 34
    Daniels: 21
    Allen: 34
    House: 16
    Rondo: 36
    Other: 2

  • mainebleedsgreen

    scratch this “Then you’ve got 5 players again, but they need to cover the pg, sg, sf positions, giving them an extra 48 minute a game to spread around these 5. Rondo, House, Allen, Daniels, Pierce.”
    -that’s wrong. there were 4 players at the PF/C not 5. I need to learn to proof read before I hit submit.