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Red's Army

Hostile Environment

RedsArmyAdmin May 10, 2008 Uncategorized 4 Comments

This seems to be the common theme (besides "LeBron blows") of this series. LBJ and KG both have used it frequently when describing home court advantage. As far as I see it, there are two forces colliding in Game 3. Let's start with the obvious: The Cavs will feed off their crowd, benefit from their "home" rims and James will get more calls, make that a lot more calls. The Jazz, Spurs and Magic all won Game 3 on their home court after falling down 2-0 in the series.

But here's what the Celtics have on their side: A major chip on their shoulder. They were embarassed by their inability to win a road game against Atlanta. They can right that ship and silence plenty of critics by coming out strong in this one. I'm guessing Cleveland wins this battle of forces in Game 3, but the Celtics will prevail in Game 4.

Today's Links: Globe – Ball in Cavs Court | Posey Returns Home | Herald – C's are Defensive Kings | James Looking for Shot | Cleveland Plain Dealer – Team Still Trusts LeBron | Billups Feelling Better

I wonder how Lakers fans are feeling about Pau Gasol this morning? Not only did he turtle in last night's loss to Utah, but he whined to the refs the whole game. And then he took his sulking back into the locker room where he dressed in a separate area. (Check out this great column by Bill Plaschke) This is the guy who's going to handle KG?

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  • William

    To further elaborate, let’s look at Off/Def Efficiency (PP 100 possessions), from Hollinger’s Team Stats, here:
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats?&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fteamstats
    Weighting these linearly between the regular season and the postseason we get:
    Bos Off Eff – 107.6
    Bos Def Eff – 95.9
    LAL Off Eff – 110.6
    LAL Def Eff – 102.9
    PEW% here has the beautiful property of being unconditional on pace so long as the ratio is correct (given our (again, I think incorrect) assumption that team quality of play is unconditional on pace); it gives us (for Boston) 0.567, which over 7 games leads to 3.97 expected wins.
    Again there is a lot of noise here: home court advantage, that LAL’s regular season numbers include those generated with Bynum/Cook/Evans/Ariza and without both Bynum and Gasol, as well as those generated only with Gasol (most accurate for predictive purposes), and similar considerations for Boston’s late season additions of Cassell and Brown.

  • http://www.redsarmy.com redsarmy

    I’ll be honest… at this point I feel like I should be trying to steal your lunch money.
    Let’s just say that no matter what… The Celtics will outscore the Lakers.

  • http://celtics247.com/blog/?p=489 Anonymous

  • William

    Just trying to educmacate you guys, please don’t break my glasses.
    SacKing,
    You call that justice? It’s real easy to win 8 on 5. It’s real easy to shoot confidently and sustain a lead when the refs have spotted you 20 points. Congratulations on a truly hollow win.
    I’ll believe someone winning in Boston when I see it.