WhatIfSports.com simulated the NBA playoffs 10,000 times…. and they came up with a less than desirable result
Utah has the highest chance of winning the tournament at 21.2%. After the Jazz, four other teams, Boston (12.8%), Phoenix (10.9%), Orlando (10.2%) and Denver (10.0%) are in the double-digit percentages for championship likelihood. The top-seeded Lakers win it all 6.3% of the time, while the defending champion Spurs do it just once every 30 or so times. Every team, including Atlanta, wins the championship at least 0.4% of the time – or at least 40 out of 10,000 tries.
I'm not big into these simulations. But I hate anything that suggests we aren't holding a parade in June. Also from the "F-You files"…. which was brought to light by PerkIsABeast.com: Bill Simmons picked the LAKERS over Boston in the NBA Finals in his aptly named BS Report. Am I the only one that sees that the Lakers DON'T PLAY ANY REAL TEAM DEFENSE?? Aren't the Celtics the best defensive team in the league? Isn't that rule #1 in the playoffs? Bad defensive teams get upset… good defensive teams advance.
The lesson here: The pressure of the NBA playoffs applies to analysts too. They try to over-think things… and they end up talking themselves out of making the smart pick.
I started to crucify Upside And Motor for declaring the C's won't win it all this way:
Paul Pierce has a tendency to dominate the ball and stop the offense, which can spell death for a team in the playoffs. Kevin Garnett consistently disappears late in games because he has no real low block post game, and resorts to shooting turn-around fadeaway jumpers almost every time he shoots the ball. Ray Allen is reduced almost to a three-point specialist on this team, and his ball handling abilities aren't properly spotlighted because of Pierce. Rajon Rondo can't shoot, Perkins can't make anything besides a dunk (and sometimes he misses those), and the rest of the cast is overrated.
But then he emailed me to let me know he was doing a whole series of pieces on "why (contender) won't win the title"… and that's the best he could do. So in reality… the best argument against the C's is a totally BS one. That's nice. Unfortunately… many other people, like me, thought he was really making an argument against the C's… and many people out there agree with that crap.
So once again Celtics… you are being doubted. May I suggest ripping the Hawks apart tonight to remind them of your dominance?